Preview Of A Share Annual Report On Clothing, Textiles And Luxury Goods Industry And Investment Strategy In The First Half Year

Investment suggestion

Looking back to the 4 quarter of 2013, Spin brand Clothes & Accessories The industry rose slightly on schedule, and the fund allocation position increased by 0.25 percentage points over the 3 quarter, but it is still at a relatively low level.

Since the beginning of the year, the sales of terminal have been warmer. Although it is affected by the dislocation of the Spring Festival, the specific extent still needs to be tracked, but the trend of bottoming up is in line with our earlier judgement.

　 Reason

The overall performance of the industry in 2013 is expected to grow by 5.2% over the same period last year, slower than the 7.3% growth rate in the 3 quarter. On the whole, the annual report is relatively dull, and the stock performance is divided: 1) the results are better than expected: Meng Jie's home textiles (+68%, rapid revenue growth, effective cost control and investment income), and Lu Tai (+42%, benefiting cotton price rise to raise gross margin).

2) performance is lower than expected: +19%, offline sales are slowing down, but the electricity supplier business is the highlight), Roley (-12%, sales slowdown), seven wolves (-33%, take the initiative to speed up the pace of adjustment, recycling channel inventory).

3) the expected achievements are: +48%, Chao Hongji (+39%, Fion investment income table), +35%, +22%, Semir apparel (+18%), Ming jewellery (+18%), YOUNGOR (+11%, real estate contribution) clothing +10%, -45%, -69%.

4) take the initiative to speed up the adjustment, the performance is expected to rebound significantly or inflection points take the lead: -45%, 2014 performance increased by more than 80% over the same period last year; good news birds (-69%, 3 quarter accelerated adjustment, 2014 will light up), seven wolves (-33%, 4 quarter to speed up the adjustment, is expected to inflection point will appear at the end of 2014).

　 Profit forecast and valuation

Looking ahead for the first half of the year: combined with the order meeting, annual report preview and adjustment, sub sectors are classified as gold jewelry, outdoor, textile, women's wear, leisure, home textiles and men's wear. among Brand clothing It is a general trend for the industry to improve product cost performance and brand strength; the gold jewelry industry is concerned about product structure optimization and revenue growth; the textile and garment industry is concerned about the cotton direct subsidy policy, which prompts the risk of stock price volatility.

Stocks are the focus of attention: US bond clothing (adjustment effect appears, industry benchmark set sail), Lao Fengxiang (continue to enjoy the brand premium), Pathfinder (create outdoor integrated ecosystem), keno Technology (high performance price ratio, positioning market blank), Lu Tai (industry implicit champion), fuanna (online business rapid development).

　　 risk

Raw material prices fluctuate and terminal consumption slows down.