In May, The Total Value Of Imports Increased By 45.3% Over The Same Period Last Year.

In June 7th, the securities market weekly and CCTV2 "market analysis room" jointly launched the "crystal ball China macroeconomy May consistent expectations" shows that in May, the average value of the gross national product growth in May was 45.3%, the median value was 45%, and the growth rate was down compared with that in April.

In addition, the highest value of the survey was 60%, with a minimum of 32%.

Li Gang, research director of the Agricultural Bank of China's finance and marketing department, said in a telephone interview with reporters that China's import trend will have a marked decline in the coming months as the import price declines and China's domestic demand slows down. The trend of decline will last at least to the three quarter of 2010, but the data performance in May may not be very obvious.

"High import growth in the first two months has been greatly affected by price factors, but international commodity prices have begun to fall.

It is not yet seen that the European economy has better than expected data, and the dollar price is relatively strong, so it is estimated that the international commodity prices will have a low level of turbulence for some time.

Li Gang said, "however, the drop in import prices has lagged behind, and in May it is temporarily not reflected."

In addition, Li Gang said that tightening macroeconomic regulation and control will further reduce domestic demand, thereby inhibiting the number of imported commodities. This effect will become more evident in 6-7 months, plus the base of 2009 is "low before and after high", which will further reduce the growth rate of imports.

Lian Ping, chief economist of 601328.SH (03328.HK), also told reporters that "with the gradual increase in the import base last year and the international commodity price adjustment, the growth rate of imports will gradually decline."

The 51 agencies involved in the survey included CICC, 601988.SH (03988.HK), 601328.SH (03328.HK), Guotai Junan Securities, Everbright Securities (601788.SH), Haitong Securities (600837.SH), China Merchants Securities (600999.SH), Bank of America Merrill Lynch, France Paris securities, Standard Chartered Bank and HSBC.