Commodities Will Rebound In The Current Round In June Or Will Come To An End.

More or less supply and demand

Recently, commodities are constantly improving. From the logic of the depreciation of the US dollar, the fall in commodity prices is normal.

For agricultural products, the price inflation has confirmed the worries of investors. In addition, natural disasters in China continue to cause the imbalance between supply and demand caused by the expected decrease in output. The industrial recovery has not slowed down significantly. Especially since the traditional consumption of the metal in June, the stock of major exchange metals (such as copper) has not increased substantially, but has declined.

At home, the first draft of the "12th Five-Year plan" of the nonferrous metals industry, which was first disclosed by the association of nonferrous metals industry, revealed that in the next five years, the non-ferrous metal industry will strictly control the blind expansion of smelting capacity and eliminate backward production capacity, all of which give investors a strong signal to cut production and further stimulate prices of industrial products such as metals from the supply and demand relationship.

However, we must see that the early price rise has already reflected many advantages in advance.

US dollar is expected to return to strength

In recent years, the chairman of the Federal Reserve has discussed the continuity of easing policy under the premise of economic uncertainty, and the policy of the subprime mortgage crisis is still expansionary policy. This will be conducive to the steady recovery of the US economy relative to Europe and the strengthening of the US dollar index; while the eurodollar issue is constantly on the rise, and the emerging fiscal deficit problem in the internal countries of the euro area has made the continued easing policy gradually reduced by external force to a tight fiscal policy, thus artificially reducing the driving force for short-term economic growth and the strong position of the euro.

The US dollar index has fallen for nearly two months since its fall of 88.7 on 7 June.

In the continuous decline of the US dollar index, the comprehensive index analysis has gathered over the rebound kinetic energy near 82, in line with the real effect of economic policy fundamentals, the possibility of a sharp rebound in the US dollar index is very high.

In this case, the cycle of commodities, especially industrial goods, has been clear for a month, and the probability of a rebound is over.

Real estate regulation and control

China's latest economic policy orientation has been clear in the near future: to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies in the second half of the year, and strive to promote steady and rapid economic development, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy.

It can be said that this positive economic policy direction is for economic recovery and

Bear dominance

After the statistics of the top twenty positions of all industrial products, it can be found that the positions of both sides have changed quietly over the past month, which may imply that the market is about to change.

For example, starting from July 26th, the first time that metal copper appeared short positions larger than long positions; on the 23 day, the metal aluminum short positions held up more rapidly than the long ones; on the 26 day, the rubber empty positions suddenly increased sharply and reversed the situation that the bull positions were much higher than the short positions in the near future; on the 20 day, the short positions of spiral steel began to rise sharply and widened the gap with the long positions.

This shows that although the price continues to rise, but the main idea of operation has quietly changed.

To sum up, the recent rebound in commodity futures, especially industrial prices, is difficult to sustain. Investors need to be cautious in their continued rise.