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Wuwei County, Anhui: Cotton Output And Price Forecast In 2010

2010/9/11 16:11:00 45

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Anhui

Cotton output.

2009 National

cotton

The takeover price undertook a significant "inflection point" in the last year's financial crisis.

suffer

Price is rising.

The impact of this year's cotton planting area in Anhui province is about 557 thousand mu, an increase of nearly 40 thousand mu compared with 520 thousand mu in 2009.

However, in recent years, the income of planting corn and vegetables is obviously higher than that of seed cotton. Therefore, the cotton planting area of this county is still about 13% less than that of 640 thousand mu in 2008.

Because of the adverse natural climate of "drought and flood" in Wuwei County from 6 to August, cotton production is still "a year of deficit" this year.

According to the County Cotton Association recently conducted a survey on the cotton field of the sample households, the average yield of cotton in this county is between 460 and 480 Jin, basically flat or slightly below last year's level.

According to the survey, cotton yield in the whole county can be roughly divided into 4 categories:

industry

The high yield demonstration film directly directed and supported by the association and the County Agricultural Commission and the cotton planted by the high-yield tackling households, the large cotton producing households and the model farmers of the cotton growers, whose height is above 1.4 meters, and the mature summer peach is between 27 and 32; if the late weather is favorable, the branches of autumn peach can reach 25 to 30, and the average yield per mu is about 750 Jin.

The area of such High-yielding Cotton accounts for about 11% of the total area of the county's 557 thousand mu.

Second, the cotton fields with a slightly higher level of production accounted for about 42% of the total proportion of the whole county.

At present, the plant height of cotton is generally between 1.2 and 1.3 meters, and there are 17 to 22 peaches in the peach growing season. For example, the average yield per mu is about 520 Jin, according to the 25 calculation of autumn peach.

Third, the area of low yield cotton accounts for 27% of the total area of the county, and the predicted output is between 420 and 450 Jin.

Another 20% cotton fields with "hilly and drought prone, low-lying and waterlogging" predicted that the yield per mu should be between 320 and 350 kg.

It is estimated that the whole county produces about 134 thousand and 500 tons of seed cotton this year, which is equivalent to 52 thousand tons of lint.

Two, price trends.

This year, Wuwei County began to acquire new cotton in late September, 10 to 15 days later than last year.

In spring cotton seedlings pplanted to the fields were in low temperature and rainy weather. Because of the late ripening of wheat and rape, the cotton seedlings could not be pplanted in time.

It is predicted that the purchase price of new cotton (seed cotton) will be between 3.75 and 3.95 yuan / Jin this year, which is 40% yuan higher than the last year's purchase price of 2.7 yuan / kg, compared with last year's highest purchase price of 3.6 yuan / Jin, an increase of 10%.

Moreover, the annual purchase price of new cotton may show a trend of "easy to rise and difficult to fall".

The factors leading to the rapid rise of cotton prices are: first, the cotton output in 2009 was greatly reduced by 33%, when the domestic economy became warmer and better, while the cotton industry in the textile industry was tightening up.

Two, the rise in international cotton prices has led to a rise in domestic cotton prices.

When the new cotton came into the market in 2009, the price per ton of lint was 14500 yuan, which rose to 18500 yuan / ton in August this year, or 27.5%.

Three, this year's major flood disasters at home and abroad are serious, and cotton production has been reduced further than last year.

Four, due to floods in China, lint output is about 7 million tons this year, and the actual cotton consumption in China is about 11 million tons a year, with a shortfall of about 35%.