Ye Tan: An Important Signal To Raise Reserves

The people's Bank of China decided on Friday (December 10th) that from December 20, 2010 onwards, Raise Deposit financial institutions RMB Deposit reserve ratio 0.5 percentage points. Raise the deposit reserve rate for the sixth time in a year.

The famous financial commentator Ye Tan told the financial website that the increase was raised. Disclose One out Important signal In November, the CPI data will be better than expected, and the central bank will not raise interest rates during the year. She explained that assuming that CPI was better than expected in November, there was a downward trend in the price from the end of November to December. Under such circumstances, the central bank would not necessarily raise interest rates, but would adopt a way to adjust the deposit reserve ratio. In fact, the central bank did the same.

Ye Tan believes that since the volume of credit in November is lower than market expectations, no banks will be lending in December, and the liquidity reserve can be totally inhibited by raising the deposit reserve ratio. In addition, the consumption peak will come at the end of the year. Raising interest rates will increase the cost of enterprises. Generally speaking, the measures to raise the reserve ratio are more moderate and have little impact on the economy.

Speaking of stock market, ye Tan said that this adjustment is good for the market, because the market is expected to adopt more stringent means. The result is a deflation which is tight but not market expectations, and the market has already responded in advance. At that time, the market has a small rebound process. Today, the market also confirms the argument of Ye tan. At the close, the Shanghai stock index reported 2841.04 points, up 1.07%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12460.5 points, up 0.87%.

Ye Tan also said that the central bank still has other softer tools to choose from, rather than raising interest rates or raising the deposit reserve ratio. She agrees with Li Daokui's statement, such as "value preservation savings, which not only guarantees the interests of depositors, but also prevents hot money". At the same time, she also gives her own opinion to lead money into the capital market. She said, "since 2003, our currency circulation has been relatively high, but inflation has not become malignant. Mainly because the capital flows to the entire capital market and the real estate market, our real estate market is now less than 100 trillion of the total market value, but it is already 2.5 times as high as GDP. The total market value of our stock market is almost close to the total GDP per year. In such a case, this capital is introduced to the capital market, indirectly serving the real economy, the capital is brought to the capital market locked up, and then using this part of the fund to expand its scale and improve its efficiency, this is also a way."