Cotton Prices Skyrocketed In The New Year, And The Healthy Development Of The Industrial Chain Is Threatened.

In 2010,

"The price rise since the launch of new cotton this year is, on the face of it, caused by the expansion of the supply and demand gap of cotton and the fund speculation. In essence, it is a concentrated outbreak of some deep-seated problems in the development of cotton industry. It is urgent to build a long-term mechanism for stable development of China's cotton industry from many aspects such as production support, market regulation, information data public services, futures market supervision and so on, so as to prevent the cotton price from rising again and again."

Li Ran, Xu Xin, Wang Li and other researchers who participated in the survey analyzed.

Cotton prices skyrocketed in the new year, and the healthy development of the industrial chain is threatened.

Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, cotton prices have been rising under the influence of tight supply and gradual recovery of demand, which broke through 15000 yuan / ton and 20000 yuan / ton two mark in November 2009 and September 2010 respectively.

After entering the new cotton picking and selling season of 2010/11, cotton prices rose faster and further. From September 1st to November 12th, in less than two and a half months, cotton prices rose by nearly 70%, and reached a historical high of 31281 yuan / ton.

Although the price of cotton has been callback since November 15th, the cotton price has remained high. As of November 30th, the grade 328 lint price is 26248 yuan / ton, which is 104% and 100% higher than the average price in 2009 and 2008 respectively.

With the continuous and rapid rise in the price of leather cotton, the price of seed cotton has also increased considerably.

According to Liu Dongling, a farmer in Xinji, Hebei, this year, when new cotton was picked, the price of the cotton peddler was 4.5 yuan per Jin, and the purchase price was getting higher and higher, reaching 7.2 yuan per kilo at the highest level, but since mid November, it fell to 5.3 yuan / Jin. Compared with the end of 2008 and the end of 2009, the price made him unimaginable.

Although the high cotton price has given more benefits to the farmers who sell cotton and the earlier circulation processing enterprises, but from the perspective of the healthy development of the whole industry chain, the cotton price rises sharply, but the disadvantages outweigh the advantages.

First, the quality of seed cotton has dropped significantly, and the phenomenon of mixed water cotton has occurred frequently, which has seriously affected the overall quality level of cotton throughout the country this year.

In the case of shortage of cotton resources and high prices, cotton traders and circulation processing enterprises compete to buy cotton and do not pay attention to the quality of cotton. Some cotton traders tell cotton farmers not to dry and classify them, which seriously affects the quality of cotton, and even some cotton traders make water for weight gain.

According to the director of Tianyuan Liang cotton Co., Ltd. in Xinji, most of the 1 million jin cotton seeds processed this year are grade four cotton, and the local three grade cotton is relatively rare. The quality of cotton pported by Xinjiang is also lower than in previous years.

The two is the abnormal rise of cotton prices in the short term, which seriously distorts the production and business expectation of every link in the industrial chain.

According to the survey, most cotton growers have experienced a steep decline in cotton prices after the end of 2008 and the current cotton price rise. Cotton prices are expected to be very unstable, and they are worried about the stability of cotton growing next year. Most of the circulation processing enterprises and textile enterprises are at a loss in the current round of cotton price inflation, and raw material procurement and production progress are all greatly affected.

Soaring cotton prices reflect three major problems.

According to the survey and analysis, the reason why cotton prices continue to rise rapidly and maintain high operation in 2010 is, on the surface, due to the decline of cotton planting area in China, the reduction of cotton production due to disasters, the resumption of textile and clothing exports, the increase of supply and demand gap of cotton, and the speculation of cotton market by idle capital. However, behind this surge of cotton prices, there are several outstanding problems that have long existed and restricted the development of cotton industry.

First, cotton growers' enthusiasm for planting has declined year by year, and cotton production capacity has been declining.

First, the comparative effectiveness of cotton planting is weakening. In addition, the annual fluctuation of cotton prices is large, and cotton farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton is not high. There is great difficulty in raising farmers' willingness to plant cotton under the existing policy arrangements.

According to the cotton farmers in Xinji, Hebei, the state has raised the minimum purchase price of grain for many years, and the grain yield has been growing steadily.

Two, there are more cotton production workers, and the problem of harvesting mechanization has not yet been broken. Cotton production is faced with labor constraints.

According to the survey, compared with other crops, cotton planting more than 20 workers per mu, more than two times of wheat and corn. With the continuous development of urbanization, the employment of rural labor force continues to increase, the cost of labor in agricultural production links is higher and higher, and the special strength of cotton planting labor intensity makes it gradually decline.

Second, the government's ability to regulate and control the cotton market is weak and its role in stabilizing prices is limited.

In recent years, the state has made certain achievements in regulating and controlling the cotton market and stabilizing the cotton price through the control of cotton huff and puff, but the effect of regulation is not satisfactory, especially for the protection of farmers' income.

In the 2008 year of the new cotton market, in the face of the low cotton prices, the state regulated the purchase and storage of the cotton in order to protect the cotton farmers' income. However, because the storage and storage objects were cotton circulation processing enterprises instead of cotton farmers, and the cotton seed cotton was sold out after large scale storage and purchase, the purchase and storage of the cotton seeds had little effect on the protection of cotton farmers' interests. This was also an important reason for cotton farmers to reduce cotton planting area for two consecutive years in 2009 and 2010.

Since September 2010, in the face of increasingly high cotton prices, the state only increased the amount of 400 thousand tons of cotton reserves in September 28th. Due to the limited number and late introduction of policies, the market has not played a proper role in reducing the pressure. Moreover, after the cotton price broke through 25000 yuan / ton in the late October, the state has not yet put in reserve cotton to stabilize the market. In addition, the auction mechanism of purchasing and storing prices has not only played a role in stabilizing the market at some time, but has increased the market tension, and even to a certain extent, has promoted the madness of cotton prices.

Third, the distortion of information data in the cotton industry has created room for speculation in speculative capital.

In the background of the reduction of cotton production in 2010, due to the lack of authoritative, timely and continuous information released by the state on cotton statistics, market information, especially output, planting intentions, inventory, crop growth and weather, the information released by some ministries and trade associations in some countries has been questioned by the market due to their inconsistent caliber, authority and credibility. This further provides larger space for speculation.

According to Ma Yunjie, deputy general manager of Limited by Share Ltd in Shijiazhuang Changshan, recently some hot money and illegal operators have made use of the information asymmetry of cotton production, constantly releasing information on disaster and production reduction in some areas, resulting in an extremely scarce atmosphere for cotton in the market.

Ma Yunjie said that idle money and illegal operators can drive cotton prices to rise and even seriously deviate from the fundamentals of market supply and demand. The lack of authoritative and unified cotton supply and demand data and information release system is an important reason at the central government level.

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Building a long-term mechanism for the stable development of cotton industry

As China's cotton production is facing many restrictive factors, with the global economic recovery, the textile industry will continue to improve, and cotton consumption demand will continue to grow.

Therefore, it is estimated that cotton supply and demand will continue to be tight in the next two to three years, and domestic cotton prices will be running at a high level.

Therefore, those who take part in the survey believe that the long-term mechanism for the stable development of the cotton industry must be constructed from the following aspects so as to prevent the cotton prices from rising again and again.

First, continue to increase support for cotton production.

We should constantly increase input in cotton R & D, continue to promote the establishment of High-yielding Cotton production activities, improve the yield per unit area through the improvement of varieties and cultivation techniques, speed up the trial production and extension of cotton harvesting machinery, and select the areas with better natural conditions to carry out the mechanization demonstration of cotton production, improve the subsidy standard for cotton varieties, explore the comprehensive subsidy for agricultural production, and pay attention to maintaining the balance of cotton and grain comparative benefits.

Two, we should further improve the means, mechanisms and methods of state control.

We should protect cotton farmers' income as the primary goal, compare the price of grain crops and grain and cotton prices, and launch the policy of minimum purchase price for cotton. We should constantly improve the regulatory mechanism, summarize the experience of regulation and control, and grasp the timing, rhythm and intensity of regulation.

Three is to enhance the government's data and information services capabilities.

We should vigorously develop the monitoring and early warning system for cotton production, strengthen the collection and dissemination of information related to cotton production, such as planting intention, inventory, crop growth and weather, and unify the data dissemination requirements of the ministries involved in cotton, and improve the timeliness, continuity and stability of information release, thus enhancing its influence and authority on the market.

Four is to strengthen the supervision of the cotton futures market.

It is necessary to monitor the cotton futures market pactions and capital movements in real time, and build a monitoring and early warning system for excessive speculation in the futures market. In order to curb excessive speculation, we must take measures to expand the price limits and raise the margin ratio in the case of large fluctuations in prices and changes in fund volume.

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Seed cotton is not as good as grain production. Xu Wenying, vice president of China Textile Industry Association, thinks -

The era of low cotton prices has gone far away.

Xiao Wen

From mid August to early November, cotton prices rose by nearly 100%. Over the past half a month, there has been a rapid adjustment of about 25%.

Where will the cotton price go in the future? Recently, Xu Wenying, vice president of the China Textile Industry Association, said that because of rising prices and rising costs, cotton prices will remain relatively high for a long time.

Xu Wenying believes that cotton prices will remain at a certain level in the future, no one will say well.

In recent years, the cost of seed cotton has been increasing, and the emergence of seed cotton is not as good as grain production. The cotton spinning industry has to study how to maintain the enthusiasm of cotton growing.

According to the past higher seed cotton purchase price of 3.5 yuan / Jin, the yield per mu is about 1400~1500 yuan, while the yield of wheat and corn is more than 2000 yuan per mu, and the seed cotton is difficult to manage. In addition, the state subsidized grain farmers and cotton seed is not. Therefore, cotton farmers' enthusiasm for growing cotton is not high.

Considering all kinds of factors, in order to protect the enthusiasm of cotton farmers and maintain the competitiveness of textile enterprises, some enterprises reflect that the price of lint cotton should be maintained at 25000~26000 yuan / ton.

He said that due to the role of national macroeconomic regulation and control, the momentum of soaring cotton prices has been preliminarily controlled, but we need to be vigilant against speculators' new round of speculation.

The rise and fall of cotton prices this time will inevitably cause a double blow to the textile industry.

When cotton prices rose, the price of cotton yarn in cotton mill temporarily changed its passive position. However, a number of anti risk poor cloth factories, denim enterprises, small and medium-sized knitting enterprises, printing and dyeing enterprises began to decline significantly, and some enterprises temporarily stopped production.

When cotton prices fall sharply, some cotton mills that buy cotton at high levels will lose money, and the money they earn will spit out.

The sharp fluctuation of cotton prices brings risks and uncertainties to the operation of all textile enterprises, causing cotton mills, cloth factories and garment factories not to dare to take orders, affecting the long-term planning and stable development of enterprises.

In addition, the huge fluctuation of cotton prices also affected the market order, resulting in confusion in the circulation field, the decline of cotton quality, and the failure of many contracts.

Xu Wenying said that the formulation of the national cotton policy has taken into account various factors. It should not only maintain the competitiveness of the textile industry, but also protect the interests of farmers, and the implementation of the import quota of cotton and the purchase and storage of cotton.

At the same time, the state needs to constantly improve and improve the details of policy implementation.

For example, whether the dumping and storage of national cotton reserves can be a ceiling price, otherwise, the auction price of national cotton will probably exceed the market price, instead, it will lead to the rise of spot price of cotton.

It is suggested that the state can consider purchasing cotton in the international market and increasing its reserves.