Zhang Dongsheng: Good Momentum; If You Fall Back, You Should Buy

Trading strategy

Yesterday, the domestic futures market generally opened at a high level and fell back, with cotton leading the decline.

The external market was up more than it was down less yesterday, and generally closed higher with limited increase. Cotton also led the decline by the limit.

We have expressed a little caution about yesterday's market, but we are still firmly optimistic about the rest of the year as a whole commodity When the market situation is sticky and repeated in the short term, we need to pay special attention to whether the main force of the bulls will enter the market and make a surprise attack. It is not ruled out that in the next week or two, there may be a wave of short squeeze.

At present, we will not change our strategy, and we are confident of the midline goal.

market analysis

Yesterday, Shanghai base metals opened higher and weaker, and the highest opening price of 1103 contract, the main force of Shanghai Copper, was 70000 yuan. This is the target price that we gave on November 26. Now we will pay it in advance. Please check our original text at that time: "Today we make a bold prediction, and we expect Shanghai Copper to rise again to 70000 yuan before New Year's Day in 2011.", We were talking about the 1103 contract.

Most varieties in the London metal market closed higher yesterday, while copper declined slightly to close at 9345. Aluminum closed higher for the fourth consecutive day and is rapidly approaching the new high of the year.

Copper prices tend to be soft after rising in the short term, which always gives people a feeling of confusion. But we are prepared, and again emphasize that any decline in this week is a good opportunity to buy in the short term. Xinduo should take advantage of the low price to enter the market.

We should pay special attention to the trend of today and tomorrow. The copper price may be raised at any time, and it is expected that before New Year's Day, we will go to the revised target we gave last week, that is, Luntong see 9550-9680, Shanghai Copper The price of 1103 should exceed 71500. We boldly assume that the target after improvement may still need to be further improved.

We have no reason to give up our long position in Shanghai Copper, which is our focus.

Yesterday, rubber, PTA and other varieties opened higher and closed lower, rubber 1105 actually declined by nearly 3%.

When Shanghai Rubber attacked the high on November 11, it was a little cautious. The short sellers were closely arranging their positions. However, we believe that the rubber form will not deceive people. This is a wave of rising market. We can see the intermittent decline in the rising process, which will end soon each time. The bulls always hold the initiative, and this time is no exception.

We expect that rubber will continue to rise today and remain bullish before New Year's Day. It should be no problem to break through the peak on November 11, even to the 40000 mark.

Let's take another look at American crude oil. The main contract for February has reported four consecutive positive lines. Although it has not broken the highest price in the second half of the year on December 7, the momentum will not stop and is expected to gradually accelerate.

The continued bullish crude oil will bring good support to the entire commodity market. {page_break}

Cotton was the species that led the decline yesterday. Zhengzhou cotton 1109 contract fell by more than 4.5%. American cotton reported a limit decline shortly after the electronic opening.

Cotton is a variety that we have begun to pay attention to recently. As long as there are fluctuations and trends, it is a good variety.

American cotton is a turnaround after its continuous limit rise and record high. Although it is a rapid limit fall, it is not a fatal end. We focus on today's intraday performance, which is likely to stabilize, and can guide the next week or two to continue to rise, and continue to squeeze short positions violently.

Although the decline was relatively large yesterday, Zhengzhou cotton also has a preference for short and medium term patterns, which is expected to pull back yesterday's decline in a relatively short time.

As long as we make a stop loss plan, we can still try to buy cotton at a low price, and the 1109 contract is expected to exceed 30000.

Finally, let's briefly talk about bean varieties. At present, we have not changed our view. We continue to be bullish on bean varieties dominated by soybean oil. In the short term, there will be a good rise from today to tomorrow. For the 1109 contract of soybean oil, our judgment is still that the highest price of 10554 this year can be hit again around New Year's Day.

Operation suggestions

We suggest that the middle line bulls continue to hold, and Xinduo can enter the market at a low price today, with Shanghai Copper and Rubber as the main targets.