Ni Jin Jie: Inflation Pressure Goes Towards Long-Term

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Many analysts expected that, because of the tail factor and the price adjustment of agricultural products, the CPI in June and July will fall, but more factors have made China's inflation into a long-term state. Analysts' expectations can only be an illusion.

In just over a year, CPI data is fast.

This round of inflation is no more than a combination of four factors: the high growth of credit, the excessive development of money, the rising of food prices by the weather and speculation factors, the inflation of service industry and the rise in the cost of human resources and the increase of rent, and the rise of the price of energy, resources and public expenditure brought about by the reform of production factor.

The former two are originally short-term factors that push prices forward through timely and effective currency.

The latter two have been long-term factors.

With the closing of the demographic dividend window, the high housing prices and the fact that the service sector's inflation is a natural thing, it is just showing signs of making up for the low wage and profit level of the service industry in the past.

The reform of production factors has not really started yet. Over the years, under the fear of inflation being out of control, the market reform of production factor prices has never been dared.

At present, the prices of the main factors such as energy, electricity and wages have not been priced in a market-oriented way.

But this process is only a matter of time. Ultimately, we must push forward a series of factor price reform.

These are long-term factors contributing to inflationary pressures.

As a result, the current inflation has become a product of short-term and long-term factors. It is also accompanied by the long-term characteristics of short-term factors and the strengthening of long-term factors.

Therefore, China's inflation pressure is hard to reach its peak this year.

Moreover, if we do not consider the cyclical economic downturn and the tight handover of liquidity, we only consider the disappearance of demographic dividend and the reform of factor prices. In the next 35 years, China's average inflation will probably rise from 2% to 3% in the past ten years, rising to 4% to 5%, and "high growth and high inflation" become the norm.

For ordinary people, if income growth can be inflationary,

In the first half of this year, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 11041 yuan, which only maintained a nominal growth of 13.2%, while corresponding to that of GDP was 20 trillion for half a year and 5 trillion for taxes, which kept nominal growth of 18.3% and 29.6% respectively, and the actual growth rate of GDP was 9.6%.

In the first half of the year 12th Five-Year, there is so much difference in the income growth plan that contains political tasks. It is hard to imagine the difficulty of achieving the income growth next.

In addition to ensuring that income is at least synchronized with the growth rate of GDP, it is more important to eliminate the long-term inflation pressure.

First of all, the most urgent task is to strictly control the scale of new loans, and control the growth rate of broad money M2 and GDP growth.

This column has been discussed many times before.

Furthermore, to recognize the fact that monetary policy has been wrong, by raising the benchmark interest rate and normalizing the monetary environment, the real estate bubble can be really hit, the rent type inflation is reduced, and the logical chain of "asset bubble CPI inflation" is cut off.

Otherwise, it will be difficult to control inflation.

Finally, pushing forward the reform of rural economy and the reform of productive factors is still the root of all the problems of inflation in China.

To prevent the price of agricultural products from continuing to skyrocket, the fundamental solution is to speed up the revitalization of the rural economy, and irrigation and water conservancy construction should not be confined to paper planning alone.

Only when the rural economy is booming can the price of agricultural products be really stable.

The long term administrative control of the prices of production factors can only bring about the abnormality of these markets, and the price signals are completely out of order.

Although inflation seems to be holding up in the short term, it has become the main culprit in the long-term trend of inflation.

There can be no further delay.

In the past two years, the lag of relevant policies, coupled with the excessive reliance on administrative measures by inflation control and the dash of real inflation, have caused today's inflation situation to become more and more difficult.

If we can not hurt the heavy blow at this time, we will still lose control of the currency and the reform process will stagnate. The inflation pressure will only be more unbridled.

At that time, the cost of governance will be far more than the present.