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The Bottom Line Is The Same As &Nbsp; Is The Organization Right This Time?

2011/12/19 11:09:00 12

Bottom Sound Shanghai And Shenzhen Stock Market Institutions

Near the end of the year, Shanghai and Shenzhen

equity market

The cold market is pressing, and the Shanghai Composite Index even dropped to 2200 below. Instead, the strategic report of the institutional investors such as brokerages and public offering on 2012 will be held one after another. The scene is very lively.

strategy

The report also came out in the first place. What is interesting is that most institutional investors believe that the stock market will bottom out in the first quarter or the two quarter of next year.

Historically speaking, the view of institutional investors has often become a "reverse indicator" of the stock market.

Just do not know this time, do they really see the right?

Comprehensive Major

Broker

According to the strategy report, A shares will become more consistent in the first quarter or the two quarter of next year.

For example, a large brokerage believes that the rebound time is expected in the two quarter of 2012.

Its logic is: first, the risk of funds in the first quarter before and after the Spring Festival is gradually digested; secondly, the trend of economic downturn has become dominant, and commodity prices are expected to fall after real demand.

Price

The policy space is relatively clear.

In addition, most brokerages believe that the macro-economy will bottom out in the first quarter or the two quarter of next year.

For example, a well-known broker in Shanghai said in the 2012 strategy report that GDP growth in 2012 will fall to 8%, the bottom of the current GDP growth rate or the two quarter of 2012.

Another big broker in Shanghai said in a 2012 strategy report that the lows in the first quarter of next year will be more just a recognition process after the profit differentiation.

trend

The annual index runs at 2300 ~3000.

In recent interviews with nearly 15 private equity fund managers, more than 9 of them believe that the stock market will bottom out in the first quarter of next year, and many public offering funds hold similar views.

It can be said that the voice of institutional investors on the bottom of the stock market is unprecedented.

Looking forward to the first half of 2007, the A share market is booming, and the sound of securities companies is booming. Even more, it has even thrown out the rhetoric of "ten thousand points" and "golden ten years".

After that, the trend of the stock market is just contrary to the views of institutional investors such as securities firms.

By the end of 2008, when A shares fell to the 1664 bottom, securities firms and other institutions.

Investment

Those who are empty or wait-and-see are not in the minority.

Because the views of institutional investors and other institutional investors are mostly out of step with the trend of stock index, and even on the contrary, the investment strategy report of securities companies is called "reverse index" in the market.

Whenever the securities company collectively looks for a long time, experienced investors remind themselves of the risk of downfall; and when the securities companies sing collectively, some investors begin to consider whether they have reached the bottom.

However, this time is slightly different from the previous market critical moment. In the past, although most of the securities companies were wrong, but after all, the views between the institutions would not be the same as this: almost 9 or more institutional investors believe that A shares will be bottomed out in the first quarter or the two quarter of next year.

In the face of such a "bottoming out" theory of institutional investors, small investors should pay more attention, perhaps not right or wrong, but the logic behind these institutional views, whether it is worth our careful exploration.