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Last Year, The US Deficit Against China Was US $295 Billion.

2012/3/14 10:44:00 15

US China Trade

The latest figures released by the US Department of Commerce show that the US trade deficit with China increased to US $295 billion in 2011.

Meanwhile, China Customs General Administration released data showing that in February this year, the foreign trade deficit was 31 billion 500 million US dollars, the largest monthly deficit in nearly 10 years.

And in February 28th, President Obama just signed the presidential decree, announcing the establishment of a trade enforcement agency, focusing on supervising China for a trade war.


This means that our country

foreign trade

Faced with the biggest deficit in the past ten years, Sino US trade friction is still inevitable and may even continue to escalate.

At the same time, the European debt crisis is difficult to disperse, and China's deficit with ASEAN is expanding.

How can the export grow on the three sides? In this regard, Yang Jianchu, director of the Economic Commission of Guangdong Economic Commission, believes that this year's exports will encounter a cold winter period or even a negative growth.

To this end, Guangdong will actively pform and upgrade.

Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce, said he would study new measures to consolidate and expand international market share.


Exports face three sides tight encirclement


The US Department of Commerce latest figures show that the US trade deficit increased by 4% to 52 billion 600 million US dollars in January, an increase of 48 billion 400 million since October 2008.

The US trade deficit with China increased by 12.5% to 26 billion US dollars in January, and last year the total trade deficit with China exceeded 295 billion US dollars, the highest level in history.


At the same time, China's foreign trade import and export in 2012 from 1 to February, released by the General Administration of Customs in March 10th, showed that the foreign trade deficit in February was US $31 billion 500 million, the largest monthly deficit in nearly 10 years.


The above data mean that Sino US trade frictions are still difficult to avoid while the overall export is unfavorable, and China's export to the US is worrying.

First of all, because of the appreciation of the renminbi, the profit margins of export enterprises are suppressed, and exports to the United States are also under pressure.

Moreover, Bama put forward a strategy to revitalize the US manufacturing industry at the end of 2009, which is bound to be accompanied by the "re creation" of the United States and the decline in consumption and import demand.

What is more serious is that Sino US trade war is going to rain.

Trade friction between China and the United States is escalating. From then on, furfuryl products and photovoltaic industry expanded to the auto parts industry.

In February 28th, US President Obama just signed the presidential decree, announcing the establishment of a trade law enforcement agency, focusing on the supervision of possible business irregularities in China and other countries. And during the "two sessions", a former official of the Ministry of Commerce said that China is now ready to fight a trade war.


According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, the total value of China's imports and exports reached US $533 billion 30 million in the first two months of this year, up by 7.3%. compared with the same period last year, of which 264 billion 390 million US dollars were exported and 268 billion 640 million US dollars were imported, representing an increase of 6.9% and 7.7% compared with the same period last year, with a deficit of 4 billion 250 million US dollars.


Although the increase in imports is a major cause of the deficit, the disadvantage of exports is obviously more critical.

From the perspective of China's three largest trading partners, namely, the European Union, the United States and ASEAN, the Nandu reporters consulted the customs import and export main country general table, and found that in February, China exported $19 billion 356 million to the EU, down 1.1% from the previous year, and imports 17 billion 761 million dollars, an increase of 14.7% over the same period last year; exports to the United States 19 billion 359 million US dollars, an increase of 12% over the previous year, 11 billion 230 million US dollars, an increase of 3.1% over the previous year, and an export of 10 billion 768 million dollars to ASEAN, an increase of 12.7% last year, and an import of US dollars, an increase of.1%.


From the above data, we can see that

EU exports

The decline has dragged down the overall performance of exports in February.

From the current situation, the situation may continue to be worse.

Shanghai securities analyst Hu Yuexiao believes that Europe can no longer hope.

The first half of this year is a dangerous period for Europe.

In the short term, any fluctuation of the European debt crisis will bring about sharp fluctuations in market sentiment and unfavorable foreign trade.

The European pig countries including Greece, Italy and Spain will usher in the debt maturity peak at the end of 3 this year and the end of April.

One of the prerequisites for the smooth financing of these countries is the reduction of the fiscal deficit, especially the reduction of social welfare expenditure, which will surely weaken the purchasing power of residents. In the long run, the decline of China's exports to Europe will be a long-term trend.


ASEAN side, from last month's monthly data, China's current ASEAN deficit is showing an increasing trend.

Huang Shaoming, senior economist at Bank of China, Hongkong, told reporters in Nandu that China's imports of raw materials, such as minerals, mainly from ASEAN, are expected to increase.

Since last year, China's imports and exports to ASEAN have been increasing, but the deficit has also been expanding.

Moreover, according to previous investigations by UBS Securities, with the export of many low-end export manufacturing enterprises to overseas, China's cheap exports began to be gradually replaced by ASEAN and other surrounding areas.


Long term pformation and upgrading of short-term policy incentives


In the tight encirclement plight, how can we break through our export?


Yang Jianchu, director of the Economic Commission of the Guangdong Economic Commission, was interviewed by a reporter in Nandu. The export situation is very severe this year, and exports will experience cold or even negative growth.

To this end, Guangdong's strategy is to take this opportunity to adjust the structure, increase investment in technological pformation, and increase the added value of products.

At the same time, we should actively explore diversified markets.


In response to this year's foreign trade situation, Chen Deming, Minister of Commerce of the two sides of the Ministry of Commerce, answered a reporter's question: "in general, our foreign trade is showing a slight increase this year, and it is possible that the situation will be better in the second half of this year, and the growth will be better."


  

Chen Deming

It is indicated that although the internal and external environment of foreign trade development is generally tight, but through painstaking efforts, China can achieve the target of about 10% of foreign trade growth proposed in the government work report this year.

In order to achieve such a goal, Chen Deming believes that we should do well in three aspects: first, steady growth, two to adjust the structure, and three to promote balance.

The so-called steady growth is to maintain stable growth of foreign trade and maintain the basic stability of all foreign trade policies. The so-called structural adjustment is to accelerate the pformation of the development mode of foreign trade; the so-called promotion of balance means that, while stabilizing exports, we should continue to encourage imports, including import of advanced technology, key equipment, important raw materials, and some consumer goods that have market and demand, so that trade between China and some major trade surplus countries will be more balanced.

In addition, our country also needs to build some platforms to enable more less developed countries and emerging countries to trade with China.


However, the US pressure on China's exports is not expected to stop.

The latest figures released by the Ministry of Commerce show that US exports to China have increased by 468% since 2001, up nearly 50% since 2008, but this still does not help to ease the US China trade deficit, and the deficit to China increased by 22 billion US dollars to 295 billion in 2011.

Chen Deming believes that this is a problem of the economic structure of the United States. He also said that the US dispute over trade frictions against China is increasing.


The grim export has caused

management layer

Worry.

Chen Deming said that in 2012, the stability and continuity of the foreign trade policy will be maintained, and new measures should be introduced to consolidate and expand the international market share.

The Central Committee from the list of emerging markets to ten ministries and commissions joint action, the purpose is to "protect exports".

Shanghai securities analyst Hu Yuexiao believes that the current policy focus is on the pformation and upgrading of exports in the long run.

But pformation and upgrading is not a process that can be accomplished overnight. Therefore, the future export will decline or intensify.

In the short term, in addition to the traditional means of export tax rebate, export credit and export guarantee, some new export incentive policies, such as encouraging enterprises to "go out", may come on stage in the future.

Although the future is rough, the target of 10% of foreign trade growth in this year's government work report is basically not suspense.

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