Continental Futures: Cotton Small Amplitude Complex Oscillation Operation

[international spot]

In March 19th, Imported cotton China's main port quotas have come down, and most varieties have fallen by 1.75 cents. Nevertheless, cotton prices have not yet reached the psychological expectations of the textile mills. Although the market speculation will give processing trade quotas to China, and optimistic about the purchasing needs of China textile mills, the spot market is still dull. A small amount of consumption will hardly consume port stocks, and the output of cotton (20170, -10.00, -0.05%) is significantly less than that of warehousing. Analysts said that if cotton prices rose sharply, if they could not get support from consumer demand, it would be difficult to keep their feet at high points. In the short term, the market is expected to fall tentatively.

[International Futures]

In March 19th, the Cypriot parliament vetoed the proposal to impose a bank deposit tax, and investor sentiment was somewhat calm. ICE cotton trend stabilized, and the contract finally rose 30 points in May. Analysts said that the market fundamentals have not changed much. Cotton prices need to be revised after a substantial increase. At the same time, the market will wait for USDA to announce the US cotton export report to verify the demand for cotton over 87 cents, so cotton prices will continue to consolidate.

[domestic stock]

In March 19th, National Cotton The price A index (CNCotton A) is 20150 yuan (per ton, the same below), rising by 1 yuan; B index (CNCotton B).
19325 yuan, up 1 yuan. Domestic cotton spot prices are still relatively stable. By investigating Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong and other provinces, the protective purchase price of 20400 yuan / ton last year did not guarantee cotton farmers' income. In some areas, the income of cotton seed per mu was less than three hundred and five hundred yuan, which led to the trend of "abandoning cotton and growing grain".

[domestic futures]

In March 19th, Zheng cotton CF309 contract opened at 20115 yuan, the highest price was 20230 yuan, the lowest price was 20115 yuan, the closing price was 20160 yuan, the settlement price was 20180 yuan, up 35 yuan; the closing price of CF305 contract was 20235 yuan, the settlement price was 20230 yuan, increased by 35 yuan; the total turnover volume 80794 hand, accumulative position 183932 hand, reduced the 20230 hand.

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[cotton information]

Hebei: spring planting has not yet begun to swing cotton farmers' intention to plant cotton. Up to now, less than a month from the spring sowing, through the understanding of cotton farmers in Hengshui, Cangzhou, Xingtai and other places in Hebei, about 20% of cotton farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting is still very high. It is understood that these cotton farmers are mainly cotton growers, cotton cooperatives, land transfer demonstration households and some "old cotton people". They have rich experience in planting cotton. Most of the cotton growers have tasted sweetness in the past years, and their returns are better. About 15% of the cotton farmers surveyed were determined to give up cotton planting, among which cotton farmers were mostly affected by bad weather last year in Cangzhou and Hengshui. Many cotton farmers believe that the risk of planting cotton is large and the income is low. Most cotton growers are still swaying, and they have not yet purchased seeds, plastic film, fertilizer and other agricultural products. About 30% cotton growers pay more attention to seed cotton prices and the state's policy of purchasing and storing the next year. A local cotton farmer named Zhang said that if the seed cotton price was below 4.5 yuan / Jin, he would give up cotton planting. During this period, he kept a close eye on the new year's storage and purchase policy. He hoped that the reserve price of the state would be raised on the basis of 20400 yuan / ton (standard level) to maximize the cotton farmers' income.

　 Jiangsu Dafeng Cotton planting area decreased by 8% this year.
Jiangsu Dafeng recently monitored 50 cotton monitoring points in 2013. Survey shows that last year, the purchase price of local cotton seed has been stable at around 4.30 yuan / kg, and cotton farmers reflect that the state subsidize cotton planting, and cotton growers generally value cotton planting income. In the 50 monitoring points, the total cultivated land area was 541.1 mu, and the cotton planting area was 463.5 mu last year. This year, the cotton planting area is 424.8 mu, which is reduced by 38.7 mu, and the reduction rate is 8.3%. The actual planting area of the cotton will only be determined by the cotton seedling bowl in April.

Xinjiang's southern Xinjiang loan is fast and farmers begin to purchase agricultural materials.
According to the Agricultural Development Bank of Akesu, Xinjiang, as of March 17th, the proportion of local cotton purchase loan recovery reached 95%, and 6-7 ginning plants had paid off loans in full at the end of February. In 2012/13, cotton processing enterprises in Akesu area had about 90% of the imported cotton store. Only a small number of cotton lint which was not in batches or not in accordance with the storage conditions were sold in spot form, so the fund recovery was very timely. At the same time, the amount of loans and actual purchase funds in the 2012/13 year were relatively large, accounting for 25%-30% in Akesu area. Because of the favorable factors such as large single storage and centralized distribution of agricultural products, the recovery of loans was more rapid and timely, which effectively guaranteed the overall loan recovery progress. In the middle of March, cotton farmers in the southern Xinjiang cotton region concentrated their watering fields and purchased agricultural materials such as fertilizers, plastic films and seeds. The cost of production materials increased by different ranges. Farmers planned to start sowing from the end of March to the beginning of April, ending in late April.

[market review]

At present, the price of cotton is more "messy", and the price of American cotton has increased to narrow the difference between domestic and foreign prices. At the same time, domestic cotton spot prices continue to close to the purchase and storage prices, but the price of zhengmian is difficult to rise significantly, because the future dumping is expected to form a suppression. But in the short term, cotton prices are still expected to rebound slightly. The pressure above 20400 yuan / ton will be larger, and it will oscillate slightly in the near future or near the price.