Forecast For Future Market: Prospect Of Cotton Market In The Three Quarter

Since 2013, the cotton market is still the focus of the cotton spinning industry chain when the demand for cotton market at home and abroad has not improved significantly and the policy has not yet been adjusted.

　 The difference between inside and outside cotton prices is expanding.

Since the two quarter, the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has continued to expand. Although the average price of international cotton is higher than that of the first quarter, the overall price of cotton is in a downward trend, while domestic cotton prices are basically stable.

Taking the price of India cotton S-6 1-1/8 (equivalent to China's 328 level) as an example, the average price of the two quarter (RMB discount free price) is about 12710 yuan / ton, which is higher than the average price of 500 yuan / ton in the first quarter, but the average price in late June has dropped by about 800 yuan / ton compared with the average price in early April, a drop of more than 6%.

In the two quarter, the average price of China's 328 grade cotton to plant was basically the same as that of the first quarter, and the price of no tax was about 17410 yuan / ton, which was higher than the international cotton price of about 4700 yuan / ton. The price difference between domestic and international cotton continued to be around 5000 yuan / ton in late June.

　　 Increased turnover of cotton reserves

Since the two quarter, the purchase of national cotton reserves is still Spin The main channel for cotton use in enterprises.

After the May 1 holiday, the state put in the cotton reserves and increased the imports of imported cotton. Because the imported cotton has certain advantages in quality, the enthusiasm of the textile enterprises has increased, and the proportion of single day turnover has also increased. In the first half of July, due to the close of the national cotton storage day, the single day plan increased, but the imported cotton did not have a large volume, and the proportion of single day turnover declined gradually.

As of July 15th, in 2013, the total amount of cotton put into operation was 2 million 923 thousand tons, with a turnover ratio of 24.65%, of which 600 thousand tons of imported cotton were accumulated, accounting for about 1/5 of the total turnover. The turnover ratio was 91.36%, which was significantly higher than that of domestic cotton. Quarterly, the total volume of transactions in the two quarter was more than 42% in the first quarter.

From the transaction price situation, as of July 15th, the cumulative average price of the transaction was 328 yuan, which was about 19235 yuan / ton, slightly higher than the starting price of 235 yuan / ton, and the single day transaction price remained stable basically.

　　 Monthly import volume decreases month by month

According to the latest figures released by the General Administration of customs, China imported 2 million 410 thousand tons of cotton in 1~6 months, down 21% from the same period last year. The number of cotton imports in April, May and June in the two quarter was 430 thousand tons, 350 thousand tons and 270 thousand tons respectively.

　　从数据上看，进口棉花数量有所减小，并未真实地反映出国内纺企对于进口棉花的较大需求，主要原因包括以下几个方面：第一，由于2012年棉花进口量基数较大，今年进口量出现同比减少;第二，今年进口棉花滑准税配额的发放方式较去年不同，逐月发放配额使得纺企不得不阶段性分散少量购买或累计一定配额数量后再集中购买;第三，二季度以来，国内市场资金面偏紧，棉纺企业贷款难度进一步加大，同时购买国储棉时一次性付款方式也让纺企有些吃不消，在进口棉花时很难表现出大手笔;第四，二季度国际棉价略高于一季度，以40%关税方式进口的数量也有所减缓，1~5月份累计进口了约57万吨;第五，5月份开始，国储棉投放中增加了进口棉的投放，且成交率较高，一定程度上缓解了纺织企业直接进口棉花的需求;第六，一些织造企业通过增加进口棉纱的数量来满足 Demand thus indirectly reduces the demand for imported cotton.

According to the textile enterprises, the demand for imported cotton is still very large. The main reason is that the cost price of imported cotton is lower than that of domestic cotton. The quality of cotton is superior to that of domestic cotton, especially in three wire, weight and capital, so as to meet the needs of cotton production and the special requirements of customers.

　　 Forecast for future market

Cotton market outlook in the three quarter

The three quarter has always been the time when cotton spinning enterprises are not using cotton, but this year they are faced with a special situation which has not been seen in previous years. It is a great test for cotton spinning enterprises and the whole cotton market. In the three quarter, the change of cotton policy will be the focus of the market.

Price difference: according to the state's policy of purchasing and storage in 2013/2014, and under the condition that the downstream demand has not changed much, the domestic cotton price will fluctuate around 20000 yuan / ton. The high global cotton inventory also determines that the international cotton price will not go up too much, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices is expected to be larger.

Cotton: the overall situation of the industry is still grim. No matter from the pressure of capital or inventory risk, cotton spinning enterprises are unable to purchase and store excessive cotton stocks. Cotton textile enterprises will be trapped in the same situation if they stop putting cotton stores into the country, import cotton is restricted, and there are 3 months left from the new cotton market. It is understood that textile enterprises urgently hope that the state can continue to put cotton reserves in order to ensure that the basic demand for cotton business season.