Textile And Clothing Exports Are Slowing Down, Zheng Cotton Is Expected To Reverse The Pattern.

< p > at present, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Vietnam's < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > textile industry < /a > is growing stronger, and its competition with China's market, especially the low-end textile market is becoming more and more intense, which has cut down the amount of cotton used in China's market.

The higher price difference between inside and outside cotton resulted in an increase in the number of imported cotton yarn and offset part of the cotton consumption. In 2013, 2 million 100 thousand tons of imported cotton yarn were imported in China. According to 1: 1.06, it was equivalent to 2 million 230 thousand tons of cotton consumption.

In 2012, the sales of cotton yarn in the lower reaches of our country were sluggish, which continued to be weak, and the efficiency of enterprises declined slowly.

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< p > the decline of enterprise efficiency is due to the "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp "cotton price < /a > high, on the other hand, the decline of downstream demand is flagging.

The export volume of textiles and clothing in China increased in 2012, but the growth rate continued to slow down in 2011. This is particularly prominent in the downstream main textile products - cotton yarn foreign trade.

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< p > according to the information released by the National Bureau of statistics, in the same period, the monthly trend of domestic retail sales also showed a characteristic of "deceleration increase".

The Canton Fair, which is known as a barometer of downstream industry demand, has not performed well in the past two sessions. The turnover has declined over the past year. Exhibitors are less than one session each year, and the signing of the fair is mainly based on the short list within 3 months. The 6 month long list is relatively rare.

Sales of downstream products are not enough to pmit to upstream production links, thereby affecting their demand for raw cotton.

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< p > over the past few years, the ratio of < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton polyester < /a > has been on the rise.

Domestic cotton receives and stores policy support, prices rise steadily, and chemical fiber lacks policy support, prices rise in the early stage of PX, the latter all the way down, cotton and polyester spreads continue to expand, pure cotton yarn is replaced by a greater degree.

The chemical fiber industry is still in the process of production capacity. The supply of more than needed is the main keynote, coupled with the expansion of PX capacity of upstream raw materials, the price of chemical fiber will continue to decline, and its speed is faster than cotton. It is estimated that the cotton polyester ratio will gradually decrease in 2013, and the substitution effect of chemical fiber and cotton on cotton will slightly converge, which will exacerbate the contradiction between oversupply of cotton market.

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< p > we use seasonal chart method to analyze the seasonal fluctuation rule of Zheng cotton index and US cotton index. We find that the month of cotton prices rising more than 50% is mainly distributed in the first quarter of the year. The month with the highest probability of rise is January, reaching 100%, followed by 2 and March. The month with a higher probability of fall is mainly distributed in the two quarter, the highest probability of fall in May, followed by April and June; and three and fourth quarter cotton prices are mainly oscillating.

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< p > it is estimated that the domestic cotton market will gradually go to inventory and improve the relationship between supply and demand, forming the solid bottom of the current "bear" market.

In a word, in recent months, the shortage of speculation in contract warehouse receipts has been weakened, and far month contracts have been supported by rumors of bidding and storage policy in the mainland. Zheng cotton is expected to turn into a "near weak and far strong" pattern.

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