China'S Cotton Imports Plunge And Cotton Market Enters A Rebound Cycle

< p > here the world is < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > clothing < /a > a target= "_blank" href= "_blank".

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< p > up to July 30th, ICE cotton declined by 24% (highest point to lowest point), and Zheng cotton fell 15.3%.

Look at the disk, the price of both domestic and foreign cotton has already returned to the pre market price in 2010. I believe that the decline in kinetic energy is postponed, the risk of shorting is increased, and the technical side is oversold. If ICE cotton fell to 60 cents in December, it would be bold to buy and hold it.

Before the situation is unclear, the domestic cotton market can consider hedging, such as buying 1411 throw 1501, and the current price difference is 710.

If there is enough time, the price difference will have a callback to below 600 before October.

And the single side can try to rebound.

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< p > < strong > China's cotton imports have dropped sharply, and US cotton exports have been impeded < /strong > /p >

< p > as we all know, China is the largest importer of American cotton. In recent two years, the domestic cotton market has declined sharply. < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > textile < /a > the amount of cotton used in enterprises has been reduced. Many enterprises have imported cotton yarn instead of some cotton flower processing.

According to USDA supply and demand data, China's cotton import volume in 14/15 is 1 million 742 thousand tons, which is 1 million 197 thousand tons less than that in 13/14, and it is also the least imported year in nearly five years.

Affected by this, US cotton exports dropped to 2 million 221 thousand tons, down 85 thousand tons compared with the same period last year.

The reduction of US cotton exports is smaller than that of China's imports, mainly due to the increase in imports from Bangladesh and Pakistan.

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< p > < strong > domestic enterprises began to decrease in operating rate and inventory was lower than < /strong > /p >

Similarly, 13/14 cotton consumption in China is also 7 million 512 thousand tons in the past five years, a decrease of 320 thousand tons compared with the same period in P.

14/15 increased slightly to 7 million 947 thousand tons in the year.

China's cotton consumption ratio dropped by 5 percentage points.

Therefore, it can be preliminarily determined that 13/14 will be the worst year in recent years, including prices, business conditions and market conditions.

After a period of adjustment, the operating rate of domestic textile enterprises is generally maintained at 90%~100%, and the operating rate of enterprises below 100 thousand spindles is relatively low, mainly due to insufficient orders.

Enterprises with relatively high operating rate are designed to prevent staff turnover.

So, as of June 2014, the total inventory of domestic cotton industry and commerce was only 1 million 133 thousand and 100 tons, a decrease of 50% compared with the same period last year, of which cotton business inventories were 600 thousand tons, and industrial stocks were 533 thousand and 100 tons, representing a decrease of 56.5% and 42.8% compared to the same period last year.

This point precisely shows that the current situation of domestic cotton traders is also very embarrassing.

But the low inventory situation lays the foundation for the replenishment of textile enterprises in the future.

In the medium term, Lido cotton market.

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< p > < strong > the end of August, the domestic supply pressure relieved < /strong > < /p >.

< p > above analysis shows that 13/14 is the most abundant supply year in China, and the inventory consumption ratio has reached 175%.

The main reason is the contradiction between the supply of state reserves and the slump of demand.

As of July 29th, the total turnover of cotton reserves was 2 million 295 thousand tons, with a turnover ratio of 22.31%.

On the 30 day, the China Cotton Association and China Cotton Textile Industry Association informed that the national cotton reserves will be put into operation by the end of August, making room for acquisition and sale of new cotton.

The United States and cotton can not be exported for a long time, so the contradiction between supply and demand of cotton will not be further intensified after September. Instead, the cotton market will be eased, and the new cotton will be listed in large quantities after October. Therefore, the domestic cotton market will have a rebound.

Plus August is another month of weather speculation, so it is not appropriate to be short again.

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< p > < strong > > < /strong > < /p >.

< p > the fall of the US cotton released the short kinetic energy, and the possibility of further decline was reduced.

The difference between inside and outside a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > has returned to the top of 3000 points, just around the mean.

Therefore, the domestic and foreign cotton games will intensify in the future.

Concerned about the rebound of supply and demand after easing the opportunity, the price difference can consider buying close.

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