RMB Strong Pattern Is Expected To Continue

Analysts pointed out that the trade surplus reached a record high in August, and exports are expected to continue to moderate and improve. This has effectively boosted the market's short-term sentiment of RMB and at the same time, peripheral liquidity. Easy And part of the international capital inflow caused by the rebound of A shares in China also support the RMB exchange rate. In the short term, the RMB exchange rate is still expected to remain strong. However, weak domestic demand and strong US dollar will also restrict the medium term appreciation of the RMB.

　　 dollar Flaunt the renminbi and not show weakness

Since mid July, the US dollar has risen in the international foreign exchange market. On Monday, the US dollar index broke through and reached the 84 integer pass, closing at 84.31 points throughout the day, up 0.66% from the previous trading day. This Tuesday's Asian trading session, the index is also the highest point since last July 11th to refresh to 84.49.

While the US dollar was advancing vigorously, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar did not weaken at the same time. On the 9 day, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.1520, up 187 basis points from the previous trading day, setting the biggest one-day gain in the year. Compared with the middle price, the spot price is slightly less than the one day increase, and the whole day's gain is not over 100 basis points. However, from a longer period of time, the spot price performance is better than that of the central price. Data show that yesterday's RMB against the US dollar spot rate closed at 6.1370, up 42 basis points or 0.07% on the previous day, the highest intraday 6.1317, the highest level since March 10th this year.

Market participants said the latest announcement of August. Balance of trade surplus A record high is the direct impetus for yesterday's market to see more RMB sentiment fermented, and both the middle price and the spot price rise. Data released by the General Administration of Customs on 8 may show that in August, China's exports grew by 9.4% over the same period last year, and imports dropped 2.4% compared with the same period last year. The trade surplus reached US $49 billion 830 million, rewriting the historical single month high of just 47 billion 300 million US dollars in July.

　　 RMB appreciation or limited space

At the same time, when the US dollar rose strongly, the RMB exchange rate remained strong. This is evident from the new high spot rate of Tuesday's spot exchange rate. From the perspective of a comprehensive analyst, there are two main reasons for the recent strong RMB exchange rate: first, the high trade surplus makes the demand for settlement in the short term prevail. Second, there may be some international capital flowing into our territory in the short term.

In the short term, these two factors are expected to continue to provide upward support for the RMB exchange rate. First, analysts say that exports will continue to improve moderately during the year as the US economy recovers more strongly, while the August trade figures show that domestic demand is still weak. The trade surplus is expected to continue and will continue to support the formation of the RMB. Secondly, while the Federal Reserve is stepping down from the QE, the ECB's quantitative easing is still overweight, which makes the global liquidity in the medium and short term will continue to increase. At the same time, the A share market has continued to rebound since late July, making money effect obvious. Some analysts believe that the bull market of the A shares is far from over, and the attractiveness of the international capital is still expected to continue.

However, while maintaining an optimistic view of the short-term strength of the RMB, the analysis institutions are still cautious about the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar. There are three main reasons for this: first, there is no doubt that the fundamentals of the United States and Europe are weak. Some researchers believe that investors may underestimate the speed of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in the future. In the context of the strong dollar, the upward resistance of the RMB can not be ignored; two, the PMI index and import data in August show that domestic economic growth is still weak, and the support for Fundamentals is still to be observed. Three, under the background of declining domestic real estate and domestic demand, exports are of great significance for maintaining growth. Some analysts say that the central parity of the previous period remains relatively low, or that the central bank hopes to avoid a sharp appreciation of the renminbi and strike an impact on the newly restored exports. In addition, Minsheng Bank (600016, stock bar) (market, inquiry) financial market research report said that although the central bank promised to gradually reduce the daily intervention in the foreign exchange market, but it can not exclude the central bank's purpose of foreign exchange liquidity management, return to the market to buy dollars at stages, thereby affecting short-term market expectations, and once again trigger the risk of RMB reverse volatility.

Data show that as of September 9th, the central parity and spot price of the RMB against the US dollar decreased by 0.76% and 1.11% respectively compared with the end of last year.