Prospects For The New Cotton Market

This year is the first year after the end of the 3 year's temporary purchase and storage policy. It is also the first year of Xinjiang's pilot "target price".

Affected by the market, the price of new cotton is low. In order to ensure the quality, Xinjiang's cotton picking area has been greatly reduced, and the proportion of hand picked cotton area has increased by more than 40%.

However, at present, the mainland market has a strong climate.

According to a survey of some localities in the Yellow River, although some ginning plants have begun to scale, the number of acquisitions is less than half of that of the same period last year. The main reason is that the market judgement and price trend are very confused, and the acquisition is in a closed down state.

Affected by a large number of domestic stocks, the price of new cotton will go down steadily and steadily.

In September, the cotton price trend at home and abroad, China's cotton price index 328 9 in the end of the month, the average price of 16898 yuan / ton, in September 30th, 15378 yuan /t, a 9% decline.

The Cotlook A index averaged 70.97 cents / pound in late September, and 70.45 cents / pound in September 29th (non-tariff and port cost of about 9600 yuan /t, including tariff and port cost of about 12600 yuan /t).

The cotton futures of Zhengzhou commodity exchange in September, "411" settlement price of 14300 yuan /t, down 3.6% compared to August; September 30th settlement price of 14310 yuan /t.

The New York Intercontinental Exchange recently (September) "October" settlement price 66.31 cents / pound, up 2.1% compared with August; September 29th settlement price 62.06 cents / pound.

According to analysis, affected by inventory, target price and other factors, the feasibility of new cotton prices going up this year is small, but the new cotton market is expected to run smoothly. The price is expected to be between 6.40~6.60 yuan /kg (when the oil price is 2 yuan /kg, the lint percentage is 38%, the seed cotton price is 6560 yuan /t, and the cotton price is 14000 yuan / T).

This is far from the expectation of farmers.

According to the survey of farmers in different cotton planting areas in Tianjin, such as seed cotton price 6.4 yuan /kg, large cotton seed yield 225 (drought free) ~250 (drought relief) kg / mu, output value 1440~1600 yuan / mu, total cost (yuan / mu) = lease fee 550~600 yuan + physical and chemical cost 400~450+ labor cost 700+ production material depreciation and loan interest and other 50=1700~1800 yuan, loss 200~300 yuan / mu.

If seed cotton prices continue to slide, losses will be even more serious.

Therefore, it is necessary to guard against the "difficulty in selling cotton" in the mainland. The Cotton Subsidy in the mainland is as early as the target price of Xinjiang.