Catch Up With The Best Stock And Grasp The Basic Strategy.

Some people say that this bull market will last for 3 years, but in fact, it is far from enough. The market will go up to a high level. When the momentum index has reached a new high level, there are still quite a few stocks that need to be filled up, so the index has not risen to an unexpected level. Investment needs to be cautious.

As the bull market goes to this stage, more and more optimistic people are becoming more and more optimistic. The reasons for optimism are varied.

In fact, the reason for this is not important.

The stock market in the world has been in the stock market for more than 200 years, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market has been over 20 years. It has repeatedly proved that as long as bullish, it will always find reasons for bullish.

And the longer the trend continues, the stronger the logic of bullish or bearish.

I am a person who likes to talk about some tall reasons before and after the beginning of the trend. Once the trend becomes reality and accepted by most people, it becomes a shortsighted person.

Because only in this way can we avoid euthanasia in the final carnival.

For the current market, the only reason for continued optimism is that the number of new accounts is increasing, stock balance is rising, momentum index has hit a new high, and quite a few stocks need to be paid up to complete their normal value return. The index has not yet reached the level of surprise.

These are the real reasons why the bull market has not yet ended.

At the same time, the market's drumming and spreading games are also coming to the climax.

As of Thursday, the market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 40 trillion and 170 billion yuan, up 31.7% from 2 yuan at the end of 2, and the median figure was about 35 trillion yuan.

The average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in March was nearly 1 trillion yuan, that is, the average daily turnover was 2.85%.

If the non free circulation shares are deducted, the average turnover rate has exceeded 5%.

What is the concept? It is an average monthly turnover of free circulation shares, with an annual turnover rate of up to 1200%.

Such a turnover rate shows that the market is keen on stock trading value rather than its holding and investment value.

In other words, in the minds of most participants, most of the stocks have lost the value of long-term holding and investment, and some have only paction value.

Another result of such a high turnover rate is that, on the basis of an average of 5/10000 two-way collection fees and 1/1000 one-way stamp duty, the average daily tap cost will be 2 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 500 billion yuan per year.

Some people say that the stock market is a zero sum game, which is absolutely problematic, because the stock market is not a zero sum game in essence, it has a listed company to create value for us, it is a positive game, and at the very least is a growth type zero sum game.

But such a high daily turnover will really turn the stock market into a negative game.

"The market is reveling in a way of self mutilation and suicide," which is a basic appraisal of my recent market.

Such an assessment should not affect our specific operation, because trading is to use reasonable strategies to seize the game of immediate opportunities, and it is different from the evaluation of beyond reality.

For now, we have two basic strategies.

In the allocation of positions, we should keep steady and catch up with others.

That is to put the vast majority of positions on stable and reliable varieties, with 20% to 30% positions to follow the trend of the market and catch up with the most healthy stocks.

For example, the largest outlet in the near future is supply chain finance, and all related stocks are all cattle, and the 20% to 30% focus is on such stocks.

In terms of risk management, the basic position is used to prepare the position index (in the Tongda letter software, the preparation of such index takes only a few minutes) to carry out indexation management, so long as the index's trend is still good, it will remain unchanged.

In a bull market, rotten butts are often better than smart brains.

Catch up with the trend, completely according to the technical operation, the wrong stop loss, and immediately change the stock.

This Tuesday, we thought that the financial stocks would break through as a whole. After opening, they would catch up with the financial B. But the closing proved wrong. This Wednesday opened up to stop the losses, and quickly pferred to the development of five mines with the concept of supply chain finance.

How to evaluate whether to catch up or catch up with mistakes? With William Oneill's view, a real stock will never hold you up to 5%. If you buy it, you will get a 50% accuracy.

In the investment of strong stocks and super bull stocks, no one Biwilliam Oneill understood more thoroughly.

Therefore, for the stocks that chase the wind, as long as the closing price is more than 5% above the highest price, they will quickly leave the field without being appeased, hopeless and hopeless.

I call this risk management standard a seat belt. High altitude rope is exciting, but it should be fastened.

From a technical perspective, this week's market shock is inevitable, but of great significance.

First,

From 3406 to 3049, 10 weeks, up and down 357 points.

This type of collation, I like to use 1.11 times to grasp its first measurement target, 357 x 1.11=396, plus 3406 points, that is 3802 points.

This is one of the technical bases and reasons for the 3800 shocks.

Second, the lowest point in bear market last June was 1849 points, but the low closing index was 1950 points.

As the difference between the bottom line and the closing point is too large, we take an average value of 1900 points.

According to the 100% rising resistance level, it is also the 3800 point.

Third, in 2007 and 2008, the average annual mean of Changyang and Chang Yin was 4642 and 3002 respectively, with an intermediate value of 3822.

Most people will focus their attention on the highest price and the lowest price. In fact, for the long term trend, the highest and lowest point is only psychological, which is really affecting and restricting.

The fluctuation is the mean value of the monthly or annual lines of great significance.

For the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the truly symbolic market points are 3000 points and 4600 points, and their median 3800 points.

3 important measures

They all focus on 3800 points, plus the first rebound point of bear market in 2008 - 3786, where shocks are normal.

Because of constraints, there is a future.

With fear, there is potential.

The biggest fear is that in 2007, when the Shanghai Composite Index rose to 6000, the investment director of an investment bank actually told me that he thought the stock market was going to be safer.

The wonder of the world is always far away from danger.

The higher the stock market, the greater the risk, and the more magnificent the scenery.

When the energy of the market itself is not enough to overcome the resistance brought by large volume, it is a main way to get a new driving force through proper shrinkage.

Therefore, the most important thing in the stock market is to reduce the volume to a relatively normal level by returning to the whole market, so that the market will not always be in a carnival of self mutilation and suicide.

As for the 1 trillion and 500 billion yuan turnover will become the norm, it is definitely the Opium withdrawal illusion, want to play a knife cut pulse game.