Cotton Prices Are Difficult To Lift Substantially, And The Opportunities Still Exist.

For the post market price deduction logic, Xu Aixia believes that from the current long-term trend of the domestic cotton market, high inventory will be the main reason for the long-term uplink of cotton prices. Under the background of high inventory, cotton prices are difficult to pull up substantially, but the opportunities for phasing are still there.

Yesterday, most domestic commodity futures rose.

Cotton futures main contract 1509 in the recent high volatility.

Yesterday, after high and low, the market closed up, up to 0.22% at the end of the day, the highest 13530 yuan / ton, the lowest 13355 yuan / ton, the whole day amplitude of nearly 200 points.

In the middle of April, some areas

Began to rebound, Shandong, Cangzhou and other places recently priced at 12800-12900 yuan / ton, compared with the previous week rose 100 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang, Baoding and other places, 3128 class real estate cotton mainstream price in 13000 yuan / ton, 4128 level in 12600 yuan / ton, 2128, 3128 grade Xinjiang hand picked cotton.

They are 14200 yuan / ton, 13600-13700 yuan / ton respectively.

For the recent cotton spot market operation logic, Everbright futures cotton analyst Xu Aixia analysis, the recent real estate spot, Xinjiang cotton reason to stop rebound, because the recent domestic yarn market sales situation has improved.

With the improvement of downstream yarn sales, production profits have increased, driving textile enterprises to purchase.

Xu Aixia said that from the perspective of textile enterprises, because of the uncertainty of the early market situation, and with the use of mining, the inventory of raw materials was at a low level. Raw material stocks were more common in 15-20 days, and some small enterprises' raw materials inventory was below 10 days.

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Driven by unexpected events and the rise in international crude oil prices, the price of PTA has risen sharply in recent years. But with the partial restart of PTA devices and the weakening of demand for downstream polyester, the PTA market is facing adjustment next week.

On the whole, the pattern of medium and long term TA surplus in PTA has not changed fundamentally. PTA will maintain a weak trend of shocks. The market outlook is concerned about PTA factory maintenance and downstream demand changes, and industrial customers can try to buy PX hedge PTA operation.

Operational recommendations are mainly short air.

Reboot device is more, start up to nearly 70%.

Demand side, polyester start up to 84%, weaving started at 80%, at present, PTA supply and demand tight state eased, in the micro to inventory stage.

Cost end, PX PTA cost 5280 yuan (600 processing fee).

At present, PTA dynamic processing fee is 500 yuan, PTA is driven by chemical industry in the short term to maintain high and volatile trend, and the middle line operation will continue to maintain more thinking. But we need to pay attention to the rhythm. At present, we wait and see, arbitrage waiting for more than 9 of 1 of the 91 Ping Shui, 1, and pay attention to the later stage of the operation of the PTA.

TA1509 breaks down 5380 front-line support, and prices may be the next platform.

At present, crude oil is stable above US $55, which will give greater support to downstream products, but we should pay attention to the fact that the stock of crude oil is still high, and the possibility of a sharp rebound in the short term is less likely.

At present, PTA has overhauled many devices, and its operating rate is only about 60%. The motive force for short-term PTA rise may come from this. We need to pay close attention to the start-up trend of the device.

Downstream polyester and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms are experiencing a small peak in 3 and April, and demand is relatively strong at present.

However, the PTA stock is currently up to 2 million 500 thousand tons, and it will take a while to go out of stock to curb the possibility of PTA's continuous rise.