The Growth Rate Of Foreign Trade Slowed Down In 13Th Five-Year.

In 2014, the total value of China's imports and exports was 26 trillion and 430 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3% over 2013. This is the third consecutive year that foreign trade growth has not reached its stated goal. In the first three quarters of 2015, China's import and export volume decreased by 7.9% compared with the same period last year, of which exports dropped by 1.8% and imports dropped by 15.1%.

A number of foreign trade experts said that foreign trade growth in 2015 would not be better than that in 2014 and could not achieve the expected goal of 12th Five-Year plan.

During the "13th Five-Year" period, world economy It will remain at the low growth range of 3%~4%, which is basically close to the "12th Five-Year" period from the perspective of growth. However, there will be profound changes in the economic and trade pattern, industrial structure and governance system, and the international environment for China's foreign trade development will be more severe. Xiao Xinyan said, "our country will face more and more competition from emerging economies. At the same time, it faces more and more resistance from developed countries in capital and technology intensive fields. This trend of double-sided attack may be more obvious in the next two or three years.

The global economy continues to slump, and our economy and trade are hard to get away with. Since 2012, the growth rate of world trade has been less than 3% for 4 consecutive years. Experts predict that in 2016, the growth of Global trade will be lower than or equal to the growth rate of GDP. "China's foreign trade growth has also been in the single digit and below 4 consecutive years. This is the first time since the reform and opening up. "

　　 Xiao Xin Yan Analysis shows that during the "12th Five-Year" period, the global economy was in a mild recovery process, and the development of major economies was unbalanced, and the external demand environment was not as good as before. China has entered the new normal after three stages of superposition. Economic growth is generally stable, but it still faces downward pressure. The support for exports and the pulling effect of imports have weakened.

"Original competitive advantage weakened, new competitive edge Not yet fully formed. " Bai Ming, deputy director of the international market research department of the Ministry of Commerce, thinks that the competitive advantage has not yet been completely transferred, which is one of the reasons leading to the decline in foreign trade growth. He believes that world trade will not grow much faster than GDP in the past, and that the development of world trade will slow down in the future. The rapid growth period of China's foreign trade has passed, and the trade growth mode will gradually change in the future. Regional and bilateral free trade will play a greater role.

At the end of the year 13th Five-Year, it is China's first Centennial dream node and the decisive stage of building a well-off society in an all-round way.

Experts believe that the "new normal" of economic growth is a long-term trend. In the next two or three years, the growth of the national economy may be in the range of 6%~7%. The contribution of consumption to the economy continues to increase, and the proportion of service industry continues to improve. Innovation plays a more important role in economic growth. Economic growth should pay more attention to quality and efficiency.