Investment Direction And Strategy Of Spinning And Weaving Industry In 2016

The performance of the spinning and clothing industry is poor in the second half of the year. Since 2015, the textile and garment industry has been growing at a low speed. In addition to the slight improvement in the two quarter, the three quarter has dropped significantly since the four quarter (to November).

Clothing CPI began to pick up from 14 October. The value in the first half of this year is around 3, indicating that clothing consumption is slowly recovering, but since the second half of the year, it has continued to decline to 2.25 in November.

In 1-11 months, the total retail sales of shoes and hats increased by 8% over the whole society, and the growth rate continued to decline.

The sales of clothing in 100 key shopping malls showed a marked increase in prices.

It has changed to normal in previous years.

By November, sales of clothing increased by 4.5% over the same period last year, but sales fell by 5% over the same period last year.

Exports continued to fall: export growth continued to fall.

China's customs data show that the total export volume of domestic textiles and clothing has been declining year after year in 13 years, and 1-10 in this year dropped 5.4% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of regions, exports of textiles and clothing to the 27 countries of the European Union continued to decline, and exports to the United States were relatively stable.

On the policy side, the TPP agreement is the most direct negative impact on China's exports, and the continuous rise in labor costs is the core reason for the decline in competitiveness of traditional manufacturing industries in China.

Company performance level: from January to the three quarter, the revenue and net profit of the listed companies of Shen Wan textile and garment sector increased by 7.25% and 14.22% compared with the same period, and the gross profit margin and net profit margin increased slightly.

Sub sector, especially the clothing sub sector and key consumer stocks and net profit growth significantly.

Three quarterly report balance sheet, inventory and accounts receivable turnover continued to show a downward trend, indicators did not improve.

But judging from the absolute increase in inventories, it has slowed down significantly.

The two quarter

The notable decline trend of accounts receivable was changed, and the three quarter increased rapidly. The increase of accounts receivable stems from the increase in credit granting of brand clothing companies to dealers.

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Market review:

In 2015,

The plate rose by 89.71%, ranking third in all sectors.

Textile manufacturing and clothing home textiles rose quite the same, 89.64% and 89.99% respectively, far exceeding the Shanghai Composite Index's 9.41% annual increase.

From the perspective of individual stocks, the market concern of the pformation stocks is high and the increase is large.

Investment strategy:

We believe that next year's pformation is still a hot spot in the market. We have listed three options for reference:

First, the market capitalization is small and the direction of pformation is large.

It is recommended that the market value is only about 4000000000. The group has sports operation team, men's basketball club resources, Xun Xing shares expected to pform sports, and signed a cooperation framework agreement with Korea dream hospital to turn to the US and women's fashion platform.

Second, project driven, recommended Mei Sheng culture, good news birds.

Both of them are in the process of turning cultural media and venture capital into a relatively fast landing project, and new projects continue to promote the company's value.

Third, in the field of clothing related, we can focus on the upstream supply chain integration platform and recommend Huafu color spinning with higher safety margin.

At the same time, we can pay attention to the white horse shares with steady growth, and the chance of the first quarter performance rebound and the depreciation of RMB.