Global Market Sentiment Is On The Rise, And The US Stock Market Is On Record Again.

The French general election flew out of the white swan. Ma Long led the first round of voting. The global market sentiment was high and the US stock market once again set a record high. In addition, the massive shortage of institutional investors helped to boost US stocks. It is worth noting that although these factors have promoted the rise of US stocks on the surface, they are only lifting the valuation of US stocks, and the fundamentals of listed companies have not changed significantly. At present, the existence of bubbles in US stocks is no longer a secret. What is more alarming is that the US dollar index continues to retreat: history tells us that the US dollar will probably fall at a time when the dollar is weak.

Since February 2009, the S & P 500 index has opened a big bull market, and has now risen three times, and has constantly refreshed its record highs. The main factor driving the rise of US stock market is the loose monetary policy of the United States. Since the implementation of the three rounds of QE, the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has soared from 870 billion to 4 trillion and 500 billion, and has increased by more than 5 times since the crisis. However, the Federal Reserve has also tightened monetary policy and raised interest rates two times. It also said it would "shrink" at the end of this year. The normalization of monetary policy is expected to prompt the US dollar to rise in advance and the US dollar to return to the US. The US economy and corporate earnings are actually not as strong as expected. Therefore, behind the recent rise in US stocks is the return of the US dollar to the US and nowhere to go to the stock market.

If the upward trend of the dollar ends and the US dollar flows out of the us again, stocks will be dangerous. It also needs to be on the alert that the valuation of US stocks has climbed to a seven year high as the S & P 500 index has risen. That is to say, the main driving force of this round of US stock rises comes from the warming of valuation or market risk, and the impact of listed companies' performance improvement is smaller. Especially in the last year, the P/E trend of the S & P 500 index almost overlapped with that of the S & P 500 index. Even the former rose more than the latter, and the risk was very high.

　　 US stock The bubble is no longer a secret, and even the Fed is constantly hinting at the risk of US stocks. The minutes of the March meeting of the Fed showed that the rise of the stock market brought about a relaxed financial environment, resulting in economic growth and inflation. Stock prices appear to be at a high level relative to valuation data. The big correction in financial market is one of the downside risks of the economy. In fact, since 2014, Fed officials have constantly hinted at the risk of US stock bubbles. In September 2014, the Fed noted that some of the conditions that might undermine financial stability include the deterioration of the standard of leveraged loans and the high valuation of the stock market. In April 2015, the Fed said some indicators indicated that some asset classes still had high valuations. It is expected that the real yield of the stock market will decline and the forecast of corporate earnings will be lowered.

Even the Fed hints at the risk of US stock bubbles. Investors need to pay special attention because historically, when the Fed suggests bubbles, there will always be a sharp fall in the US. For example, in December 2001, the Fed officials said the valuation of the stock market was weak, and the US shares fell 20% a year later; in March 2000, the Fed officials said that the valuation of technology stocks was at a historical high, and that the risk of stock market volatility rose, and the US shares fell 25% after a year. Since the second round of interest rate hikes in the Fed, the US dollar index has shown a particularly weak trend. Before the Fed raised interest rates, the dollar index would go up and then began to fall. Last time Federal Reserve On the day of raising interest rates, the US dollar index fell sharply, which is a situation that has not been encountered before.

In addition, after the Fed's news of shrinking news, the US dollar index did not go strong, but it continued to weaken. In April 12th, US President Trump reiterated that the US dollar was becoming too strong, and even changed its previous view, claiming that it liked low interest rate policy. Then the dollar fell rapidly. After the French general election flew out of the White Swan, the euro rose and the US dollar index fell further. I am afraid that the US dollar is hard to get rid of the weak fate. Exchange rate is not a purely economic issue. The influence of government willingness on exchange rate can not be ignored. Since the Nixon administration, during the Republican period, the US dollar rate has shown a downward trend.

Trump hoped that "the United States will be great again" and vowed to let the manufacturing industry return to the United States and promote employment in the United States. For this reason, Trump did not hesitate to "coercion and lure" big companies. In this case, strong dollar It will become an obstacle to Trump's administration. During the period of Obama's administration, the failure of the strong dollar to lead to the return of manufacturing industry is a lesson. In April 12th, Trump once again made this point clear, saying, "I must admit that I like low interest rate policy. I think the dollar is becoming too strong, partly because of my mistakes, because people are too confident in me. But this is detrimental to the interests of the United States. A strong dollar will bring some benefits, but it just sounds good. If the dollar stays strong and other countries depreciate, competition will be very, very difficult. " Although the Fed has increased its interest rate for the first time since the first round of US interest rate hike, the US dollar index V has reversed. However, from a time point of view, the dollar trend fell after the Fed raised interest rates.

For more information, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net report.