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The US Dollar Will Continue To Weaken Against The Central Bank'S Currencies That Are Changing Their Policy Preferences.

2017/6/30 15:27:00 49

US DollarPolicy OrientationMonetary Policy

As the position of the central bank outside the US became more hawkish and weakened the relative attractiveness of the US dollar, the dollar in the Asian market slipped for the fourth consecutive day on Friday.

Tuesday's speech by ECB Mario Mario raised the expectation that the central bank announced a reduction in stimulus in September, and the euro soared.

Wednesday's speech by BOE Mark Mark and top two policymakers from the Canadian Central Bank (BOC) also raised expectations that the two central banks might raise interest rates, putting pressure on the US dollar.

Stephen Innes, head of Asia Pacific Trading at OANDA, said: "obviously the situation is changing. G10's central bank does seem to have some synergy."

He refers to a series of

monetary policy

A hawk pie speech.

In addition, there are signs that the growth rate of the US economy is slowing down, and political interference has raised doubts about whether Donald Trump can advance its financial agenda, and the US dollar has become increasingly popular among investors.

The yen rose for third consecutive days as a result of the decline in the Japanese stock market.

The Aussie dollar was stronger because of the rebound in iron ore prices and better than expected manufacturing data in China.

"Although the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates on a relatively predictable path, the recent changes in the wording of other central banks such as the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada have surprised many people, pushing forward the reassessment of their currencies," said Daniel Been, head of foreign exchange research at ANZ.

Been added: "we expect

dollar

Those currencies that are changing their policy preferences will continue to weaken.

Since June, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has fallen 1.6%, the fourth month decline in a row, and the policy divergence that supports the US dollar rebound since 2014 has been disappearing.

The Bloomberg US dollar spot index fell 0.1% in the Asian market on Friday, making it down to 6.8% in the year.

In addition, the ICE US dollar index was the latest 95.52, hitting 95.47 earlier on Friday, a nine month low.

The euro / dollar is the latest 1.1437, close to the highest 1.1445. since May 2016 this week.

EUR / USD has risen 2.2% this week, up 7.4% in the second quarter, and is expected to hit the best single quarter since the third quarter of 2010.

Teppei Ino, an analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in Tokyo, MITSUBISHI, said that the market now focuses on whether the euro / dollar can rise by more than 1.15, which is the resistance level of the euro in most of the past two years.

  

Federal Reserve

It has been very clear that it is now very appropriate to raise interest rates step by step from a low historical level.

"We plan to reduce the balance sheet step by step, we will not sell assets and will continue to provide more details."

Yellen said clearly that the reduction of the scale will be "gradual" and "predictable".

As for this year's low inflation, she admits that the current inflation level is "consistently lower than expected."

The Fed also does not shy away from the possibility of reducing inflation expectations in the future.

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