The Driving Force Of Cotton Rising Is Not Enough. Some Textile Enterprises And Traders Have Entered The Market Ahead Of Schedule.

According to the national cotton market monitoring system survey, it is estimated that the raw materials inventory should be replenish at least one month before the new cotton market is released in late September. Since the beginning of July, the average daily paction price of Xinjiang cotton has increased from 14997 yuan / ton to 15307 yuan / ton, and the paction rate and paction price of the reserve real estate cotton have also achieved "double litre", indicating that some textile enterprises and traders have already entered the market ahead of time, preparing for more than a month's cotton supply.

Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and other mainland libraries "double 28" Southern Xinjiang hand picked cotton, "double 29/ double 30" cotton picking price is as high as 16300-16500 yuan / ton, 16500-16700 yuan / ton (a few traders "double 29" hand picked cotton price 16800-17000 yuan / ton), reserve Xinjiang cotton, zhengmian main contract and Xinjiang cotton spot price difference are 1000-1200 yuan / ton.

Then, according to the market price and performance of cotton yarn and grey cloth, what is the affordable and digestible cotton price of textile enterprises? Take C32 cotton yarn as an example.

Since July, the quotation of domestic light textile market, cotton mill combed yarn, combed yarn and air spinning yarn has fallen down and down, though the amplitude is not large. But the pressure of the weak orders, the stock flow of the mills and the cash flow from the downstream have been greatly tightened. The yarn price has fallen into a downward channel. There is little hope for short-term bottoming, stabilization and rebound. At present, the C32S yarn is about 23000-23200 yuan / ton, and the cotton reserves are in reserve.

+2016/17 real estate cotton or imported American Cotton (West Africa cotton, India cotton, etc.) + real estate cotton, 2016/17 Xinjiang cotton + real estate cotton (including reserve real estate), with 50% reserve Xinjiang cotton +50% reserve real estate cotton paction price as an example.

1. Spinning direct cost: (50%*14124+50%*15307) *1.06 to 1.08 (reserve cotton spinning loss slightly larger) +5800 yuan / ton (processing fee, including workers' wages, utilities and so on) =21400-21700 yuan / ton;

Two, C32S yarn comprehensive cost: 21400 ~ 21700+400 ~ 500 yuan / ton (the growth period is two months to calculate the financial cost) +200 ~ 300 yuan / ton other expenses (including sales costs, warehousing, etc.) =22000-22500 yuan / ton;

Three, if all adopt

C32S yarn, spinning enterprises profit of about 500-1000 yuan / ton;

Four, if

From the hands of traders, the reserve cotton will be reduced by 150-200 yuan / ton; if spinning enterprises use 2016/17 3128/3129 (fracture strength 26-27cN/tex), high quality imported cotton (the price of the cotton outside the port) and the real estate cotton yarn, there will be no profit or even a slight loss.

From the profit situation, downstream cotton mill can give cotton power and space is not enough.

Cotton growing in China, India and the United States is in good condition, and the increase in supply side makes it difficult for cotton prices to rise again.

In addition, the national cotton store auction continued in 2017 and lasted until August 31st.

According to the current auction rate of national cotton and cotton sold at 70%, it is estimated that domestic cotton supply is adequate and price increases are not supported.

For the aftermarket, Xiao Fengbo said that although the current domestic cotton growth is good, the market for 2017/18 cotton production is expected to occupy the mainstream view, price down is also digesting this factor.

The increase in output is bound to modify the logic of investment in 2016, but the gap between cotton production and marketing is still there, and as China's cotton inventories continue to decrease, the decline in cotton prices will become smaller in the coming half year.

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