After A Sharp Boost, Crude Oil, PX Assisted And PTA Continued To Rise For 4 Days, And Finally Broke Through 5000 Points!

After "decadence" for more than two months, PTA futures finally climbed strongly on the 27 day, breaking through 5000 points.

As of the end of 27 afternoon closing, Zheng Shang PTA futures main contract 2005 to 5040 yuan / ton closed, or 1.33%.

　　 However, the PTA futures market has risen to more than 5000 points, and the capital side also has some influence. The most important reason is that the decision level has released the signal of lowering the accuracy, and this reduction is expected to be realized in the near future.

In addition to the capital side, the fundamentals also contributed to the PTA market.

Although the PTA has ended its "arrogance" since the second half of the year, due to changes in the pattern of supply and demand, and the fact that PTA manufacturers have been in a tired inventory stage, the PTA futures market has been under pressure in recent months, and spot prices are also declining. Especially in the second half of the year, the new Feng Ming 2 million 200 thousand ton PTA plant and the Sichuan Shengda 1 million ton PTA plant were formally put into operation, and the PTA supply side was further expanded. Meanwhile, on the 25 th, the 1 million 200 thousand tons PTA device in Xinjiang and China has been officially released, which has suppressed the rising trend of PTA market to a certain extent. However, on the 27 day, crude oil and PX rose to the PTA market, injecting a needle of "strong heart".

We can not control the capital side, then we will analyze the reasons why PTA is strong.

Crude oil continued to rise, reaching its highest level in 3 months.

Crude oil, as the source product of polyester industry chain, has a cost driving effect on the polyester market. Since OPEC and non OPEC countries agreed to cut production and release good news from Sino US trade, international crude oil has been on the rise, and the market has worried about the supply of crude oil.

On the 26 day, data showed that US crude oil inventories had dropped sharply, and 7 million 900 thousand barrels had been reduced during the week. The international crude oil rose sharply, and oil futures in Europe and the United States rose to the highest price in 3 months. In December 26th, WTI crude oil futures rose 0.57 US dollars in February, at 61.68 US dollars / barrel, up 0.9%; and Brent February crude oil futures rose by 0.72 US dollars to 67.92 dollars / barrel, or 1.1%.

　　 Driven by shortages, PX prices continue to rally.

On the 24 day, under the influence of Christmas holidays, the PX market was trading ahead of schedule. On the same day, the price of PX rose by $15 during the day and was boosted by PX. On the 24 day, the PTA futures market also rebounded. The main 2005 contract rose 70 yuan / ton, closing at 4966 yuan / ton, but still no more than 5000 points.

In 2019, the total capacity of China's PX was 20 million 365 thousand tons, and the domestic production capacity was about 6 million 100 thousand tons. The supply side continued to increase. This year, the PX profit continued to decline, and as of now, it has lost to 109 US dollars / ton.

　　 However, due to the low operating load of PX in the near future and the shortage of goods in the market, it is expected that supply will be tight early next year. On the 26 day, the price of PX will rise again: Asian PX prices will rise by 10 US dollars to 827.33 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and increase US $10.5 to 842.83 USD / ton CFR China. The support of cost surface promoted the strong rise of PTA futures.

Polyester is overhauled, but the boot is still high.

Near the end of the year, polyester factories have a wave of device overhaul. According to statistics, from December to the end of January next year, the polyester plant for parking inspection is about about 13000000 tons. In fact, for PTA, the trend of market mainly depends on the needs of downstream polyester factories, the overhaul of devices, and the demand for PTA should be weakened. However, in such a time node, PTA can still break through the difficult climb and has an important relationship with the stable start-up rate of polyester factories. At present, the average operating rate of polyester factories is around 86.5%, which is basically the same as last week. The stable start-up rate has also given PTA a "reassurance".

　　 As we all know, PTA is one of the important raw materials for the production of polyester, and the production of one ton of polyester filament needs 0.86 tons of PTA. In the near future, the price of polyester filament has been increased more frequently. Weaving factories are stocking the demand at the end of the year, and the demand for polyester is relatively stable. Therefore, extending to the upper reaches also provides impetus for the PTA market.

No matter what causes PTA to pull up, breaking through 5000 points is considered "rare" in the near term. On the other hand, no one wants raw materials to keep falling, and the market is always prosperous.