Cost Support Weakened PTA High Drop

According to the price monitoring, the domestic PTA spot market price fell back in March. As of March 31, the average price in the spot market was 4413 yuan / ton, down 6.96% compared with the beginning of the month, and increased by 37.43% year-on-year. In March, PTA plants have announced the recent maintenance plan, so far PTA operating rate is around 84%.

In February and March 2021, pxacp negotiations in Asia have reached 705 US dollars / ton and 870 US dollars / ton respectively. Domestic PTA processing fees have been significantly reduced. At present, PTA processing gap has recently reached a historical low. Since March, the average PTA processing error is about 325, and even a little more than 200 in a few days. PTA enterprises are more willing to take the initiative to carry out maintenance. The production profit of the plant is declining, which has reached the level of production loss for most of the units, which leads to the shutdown and maintenance of many PTA units.

PTA maintenance increases under low processing costs, which is good for the market, but at present, the cost impact is dominant. According to the price comparison tool of business agency, PTA and crude oil are basically in line. At the beginning of March, Saudi Crude oil facilities were attacked, and WTI crude oil once rose to the highest level since October 2018. However, in the middle of the year, the number of new cases in Europe increased, and the blockade measures were restarted. The market worried that the blocked vaccination process in Europe would damage the economic recovery and fuel demand. The crude oil fell sharply, dragging down the focus of the chemical industry market and weakening the support for PTA cost.

Demand side downstream polyester and staple fiber production and sales continued to downturn, polyester factory continued to accumulate. The sharp fluctuation of raw material price leads to the cautious attitude of terminal orders and the poor follow-up of orders. At present, the grey fabric is in a state of accumulation. Elastic and weaving enterprises mainly prepare raw materials in the early stage of digestion. It is heard that some enterprises prepare raw materials for more than half a month. However, the confidence of polyester factories still remains. In March, the price of polyester POY (150D / 48F) is 7500-7750 yuan / ton, which is less than 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

Analysts believe that, as the current PTA price is still affected by crude oil, the focus is on OPEC's new production reduction policy in early April, and the probability of extending the production reduction is relatively large, which will be beneficial to the crude oil market. At present, the PTA supply side maintenance is shrinking. In April, there will still be many units shut down for maintenance. The short-term operating rate is expected to remain low, the supply is tight, and the stock removal is expected to be obvious. However, in May, with the new plant put into operation or returned to the accumulated warehouse, PTA processing cost is expected to run between 300-450 yuan / ton in the near future. In addition, the demand for terminal procurement and speculative stock preparation is insufficient, and the follow-up of the follow-up demand is still waiting for the terminal order volume. Overall, PTA Market in April is more likely to rebound, but the range is limited.