Behind The "Land Grabbing" Of Nanjing Local Auction: Survival Of Real Estate Enterprises In Yangtze River Delta

On May 22, the curtain of centralized land supply in Nanjing just came to an end, and the real estate enterprises that got the land dare not slack off and immediately entered the preparatory work of development“ The project in hand of the real estate enterprises have already found good money and a good cooperation team. This week, they have entered into the discussion of cooperation division. " A local real estate enterprise in Nanjing told the reporter of the 21st century economic report that the specific division of labor and which part of the cooperation party should dominate will be determined in the next few days, followed by a series of work such as planning and approval.

On May 20 and May 21, 52 pieces of land were collectively supplied in Nanjing for two days. In addition to one piece of land in Jiangning that was terminated for some reason, 36 of the remaining 51 pieces of land touched the land price limit and entered the lottery procedure. Before that, 15 real estate enterprises of Vanke have confirmed their bid for land. On May 22, Nanjing announced the results of the lottery of the remaining 36 plots of land, including Vanke, Xincheng, Yuexiu, poly, Zhonghai, Jinke, Datang, Xuhui and other foreign real estate enterprises.

According to statistics, Nanjing has collected 99.25 billion yuan of land for 51 pieces of land, which is comparable to that of Hangzhou, which received 117.8 billion yuan. According to the 21st century economic report, a real estate enterprise who participated in the local auction and was lucky to win a piece of land told the 21st century economic report that the net interest rate of many plots is about 2%, but "some plots in Hangzhou can't be robbed even if they don't earn money. Why not come to Nanjing to have a try?"

Based on the information of local enterprises in Nanjing for the centralized land supply, the local auction in Nanjing and Hangzhou is similar, Hangzhou may be hotter and the inventory of commercial housing market is less; At present, Nanjing is in a new low state of market inventory in the near future, with only five months of de chemical cycle. Therefore, the profit space of these plots is expected. In addition, 32 land parcels are located in the main urban area, which has obvious advantages of de chemical.

"Nanjing's profit is higher than Hangzhou's"?

"The profit of the development project in Nanjing is higher than that in Hangzhou. Nanjing has given 2% - 5% of the profit margin, and Hangzhou has a lot to lose. " Just took a piece of land in Nanjing, a small real estate enterprise related people sigh, from the game rules, it is very obvious. In the same market with limited house prices, Hangzhou's "self-supporting" approach after the local auction reached the price limit, which led to the reduction of profit margin compared with Nanjing. Because the self-sustaining commercial part, for some commercial development and operation experience of the real estate enterprises, the cost is uncontrollable.

The adjustment of Nanjing's local auction auction rules puts forward higher requirements for the capital strength and comprehensive strength of the developers: the pre-sale conditions of commercial residential buildings should be increased to 50% of the investment amount of residential buildings. In addition, the qualification requirements for real estate development of some plots should be at grade 3 or above, and the proportion of bid deposit increased from 20% to 30% and 50%; In addition to the prohibition of the vest company, all bidders who accept the maximum price can participate in the lottery. The winning price is the maximum price plus a price increase.

But the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises in Nanjing is outstanding. According to statistics, 84 real estate enterprises signed up to participate in the auction, with a total of 737 offers. Among them, Poly Real estate has applied for 29 pieces of land and Hong Kong land has registered more than 15 pieces. In 2020, Poly Real estate has 20 projects under construction and sale in Nanjing. Although poly's strategic intention of deep ploughing in Nanjing is obvious, this centralized land supply is only a piece of land.

Yincheng real estate, a local real estate enterprise in Nanjing, took three pieces of land this time, but the investment pressure of the company in Nanjing market was still visible throughout the year. In 2020, the sales amount of Yincheng real estate in Nanjing was 9.1 billion, accounting for 57.7%; There are 12 projects on sale in the whole year, and there are 6 cooperative development projects. From the perspective of all the land acquisition cooperation, the proportion of cooperation projects in Yincheng in the whole year will be increased. Hongyang, another local real estate enterprise in Nanjing, has 11 projects under construction and sale in Nanjing, only 2 of which are wholly owned. In addition to Nanjing Hongyang Plaza, only one residential project is wholly owned by Hongyang. Hongyang in the base camp of Nanjing project replenishment pressure is great. The fierce competition in Nanjing local auction market can be seen.

The result of real estate enterprises competing for land is: the floor prices of many plates in Nanjing have risen, among which the future competitive pressure will increase. For example, a plot in Nanbu new town won by Poly has a floor price of 37000 yuan / square meter, which is a new floor price of 31000 yuan / square meter obtained by Jinji real estate in January 2020.

But for the real estate companies involved in the auction, this is not a problem. The land quality of this round of centralized land supply is relatively high, with 32 plots distributed in the main urban area; Prices in Nanjing have been rising for seven months. On May 17, the National Bureau of statistics released the latest statistical data on the sales price changes of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in April 2021. Among them, in April, the price of new houses in Nanjing increased by 0.6% month on month and 5.1% on a year-on-year basis, and the price of second-hand houses rose by 0.7% month on month and 6.1% on a year-on-year basis. Nanjing house prices have risen for seven consecutive months since October 2020.

The reason for real estate enterprises to get land is that the inventory of Nanjing market is getting tight. Inventory in Nanjing is currently low (5 months). As of the end of April 2021, the saleable area of residential buildings in Nanjing is 5.9 million square meters, and the cycle of de conversion is reduced to five months.

In addition, when the relevant departments of Nanjing City formulated the land auction rules, the actuarial expertise was very high, which not only limited the house price, but also left a profit space for developers. But in the view of some large and medium-sized real estate enterprises, some plots have guaranteed profits, but not all of them; In the eyes of many small enterprises, if they don't understand the situation in Nanjing, they will think that the local auction rules in Nanjing are the same as those in Wuxi, so long as the lottery places are guaranteed profits.

This also shows that Nanjing has market advantages, but these advantages are also uncertain. For example, once the government tightens the regulation, the project sales cycle will become uncontrollable. Most of the real estate enterprises are also aware of this. In order to disperse risks and share costs, cooperative development has become the main picture of Nanjing real estate market after the end of the local auction. Yincheng real estate, a local real estate enterprise in Nanjing, took three pieces of land this time, and all of them have found a good partner.

Zhejiang's control is decentralized, and real estate enterprises focus on Nanjing

Real estate companies flocked to Nanjing to get land, the deeper reason is that Nanjing real estate can be bundled with "hardbound package" sales. At present, Nanjing's popular real estate are bundled with "hardbound package" sales, and the proportion of down payment is high, basically in 80%.

Nanjing, a home buyer pointed out that Nanjing through the "upgrade decoration package" disguised price increase, which is not seen in the commercial housing online signature statistics. Developers will generally introduce two decoration fees (foundation and upgrade). Upgrading decoration package is nominally an option for consumers. This is what Nanjing industry calls "hardcover package". According to the maximum of 5000 yuan, the amount of "hardcover package" for bundling sales of a house ranges from tens of thousands to millions.

A salesman from a project in Jiangbei said that this practice needs to be reported to the government in advance. But in practice, almost all developers require customers to buy "hardback package", otherwise the sales may not be received.

This is the main reason for the current booming property market in Nanjing. Although the market gathers various advantages, there are hidden risks of tightening regulation. For example, on May 24, several banks in Hangzhou raised mortgage rates. Hangzhou branch of China Construction Bank disclosed that it has officially raised the interest rate of second-hand housing loans. After the adjustment, the first set of interest rate increased from 5.2% to 5.4%, and the second set of interest rate increased from 5.3% to 5.5%.

For some buyers, perhaps the window period of buying a house is about to close, which is regarded as a precursor of the coming of the market turning point, and the impact on the property market will gradually release. It is understood that the first average interest rate in Nanjing is 5.65%, up 1bp from last month; The average interest rate of the second set of housing was 5.70%, slightly lower than that of the previous month. On the whole, the window period of Nanjing's house purchase is still there. Nanjing industry insiders believe that this for the second half of the Nanjing property market, may be good.

In Nanjing, due to the serious upside down of primary and secondary house prices, there are projects directly hanging 10000 yuan / m2, so it is difficult for buyers to buy a house. It is very common to draw a lottery number for several months. Before this, Nanjing property market appeared "fake talent" house. On April 23, according to Xinhua news agency, some agencies in Nanjing helped buyers forge "talent identity" by means of "affiliation" with high-tech enterprises and agent examination qualification certificates, giving priority to buying new real estate for profit, disrupting the market order and damaging the talent introduction achievements of the city.

Market supervision has been strengthened accordingly. On May 11, the relevant departments of Nanjing jointly issued a briefing, saying that the public security organs have dealt with those who have found out the facts of crimes according to law. At present, 2 people have been taken criminal compulsory measures and 8 people have been punished by public security. 47 people who obtained the certificate of purchasing houses illegally have been dealt with according to law and regulations. Among them, 31 people who have not used the house purchase certificate will cancel the purchase certificate; For 16 people who have used the house purchase certificate, we will start the procedure of canceling the house purchase certificate, urge the development enterprises to take back the house resources in time and organize the resale.

The attraction of Nanjing market to foreign real estate enterprises is gradually catching up with Hangzhou. Dexin, Binjiang, everybody and other Hangzhou real estate enterprises have entered the real estate market in Nanjing. In March 2020, Dexin real estate entered the urban area of Nanjing for the first time. Before that, Dexin had taken a homestead in Lishui; In July 2020, Binjiang also entered the Nanjing market; In January 2021, everyone real estate entered Nanjing for the first time and won the Jiangbei core plot.

The departure of these well-known local real estate enterprises in Hangzhou has something to do with the tightening policy environment of Zhejiang Province, in addition to the low profit of the plot in Hangzhou. In April this year, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Ningbo, Hefei and Nantong were interviewed and upgraded. As three of the five cities interviewed are located in the Yangtze River Delta, the regulation and control of the major cities in the Yangtze River Delta has also begun to tighten. Since more than a month, Nanjing and Hangzhou have been "patching" in terms of settling down and purchasing houses for talents. Since April, Jiaxing, Shaoxing, Quzhou, Huzhou and other cities have introduced new policies of regulation and control, and the level of control cities is obviously decentralized. Real estate enterprises have also begun to invest outside the province and even outside the Yangtze River Delta.

A Nanjing real estate enterprise personage disclosed that in the past, Nanjing's land auction also had rules such as selling existing houses and competing for self-supporting. In the local auction on April 30, there was still a rule of self-reliance. However, this time, the centralized land supply was cancelled and the lottery was directly carried out. This is considered to be a way for the government to leave profit space for real estate enterprises to ensure the quality of housing. In fact, more real estate companies are willing to see Nanjing as a market with room for expansion of profit margin.

Feng Changzhong, general manager of Nanjing Zhonghai, believes that since the land price of Beijing and Hangzhou is unlimited, the bidding has reached the upper limit, and the developers have to compete for construction, and the net profit of 1% - 2% is common“ Three times a year, the developers who can't get the land will naturally disperse, and the developers can only swim on the line of life and death. "