New Perspective: Cotton Merchants' View Of Target Price Subsidy Policy In 2015

On the evening of April 7th, the national development and Reform Commission announced that in 2015, China continued to implement the pilot project of cotton target price reform in Xinjiang.

At present, China is the largest cotton producer and consumer in the world, and the impact of the implementation of the target price subsidy policy on the international cotton market can not be ignored.

In this regard, the reporter interviewed some cotton traders and traders.

Comprehensive consideration

With the approval of the State Council, the national development and Reform Commission issued the Xinjiang cotton target price level of 19100 yuan per ton in 2015.

It is understood that the current price of 19100 yuan / ton has been reduced by 700 yuan / ton compared with that of last year, but it is higher than that of some foreign businessmen and importers, which is 17000-17500 yuan / ton before, which is higher than that of the main port in China. It is 2000-3000 yuan / ton for the United States and cotton, which plays a role of underpinning the domestic cotton price, and has restored the confidence of cotton growers. In 2015, cotton production will be guaranteed, plus about 11000000 tons of stock, and the pattern of supply exceeding demand will still exist.

A large international cotton trader said that the price of 19100 yuan is basically in line with market expectations. It may be slightly higher. But considering the decline in cotton prices at home and abroad in recent one or two years and the current cotton prices, the target price in 2015 clearly conveyed the government's intention to provide support for Xinjiang cotton farmers and maintain the stability of Xinjiang's cotton growing area.

Personally, the price of 19100 yuan / ton will not have a significant impact on cotton planting intentions in Xinjiang, Xinjiang.

It will remain stable, and will not have any impact on the international cotton price at this stage, especially not a positive one.

If there is, it should also be a bad influence, because this price can stabilize the cotton planting area in Xinjiang.

He believes that there are also the following factors that affect Zheng cotton futures, ICE futures and international cotton prices.

1, the US 2014/15 end inventory, ICE futures speculative positions and commercial positions will closely monitor this change.

2, the reduction of cotton planting area in the Yangtze River Basin of China.

3. Weather and actual planting conditions of cotton producing areas in the United States.

4, downstream demand and price level of cotton.

5. Cotton price difference in China and abroad.

Spread

6. China's dumping plan, especially the price of dumping and storage and the specific operation methods.

Although the domestic cotton inventory pressure is relatively large, considering the "three silk" and consistency, high quality cotton and Australian cotton are still popular, and many large textile enterprises are exporting orders. For a future cotton trader's entry into the Chinese market, a cotton trader mentioned that China's domestic textile enterprises are pferring to the direction of high-end yarn, the demand for high-grade cotton is relatively strong, and the national quota has little effect on the import of foreign cotton, and spinning enterprises can choose processing trade quotas.